Accuscore: The Global Leader in Sports Forecasting - Profitable betting since 2004.

Game Details

MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
0
Chicago Cubs
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

-15
15
-0.5
under
0.5
over
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 27-16, 63% + 940 Chicago Cubs Home Games: 28-14, 67% + 1260
OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 8-3, 73% + 470 Chicago Cubs Home Games: 8-2, 80% + 580
Money Line
CHC  54.3%
Side Value
ARI  9.4%
45.6%
54.3%
Game Projection
  • Arizona Diamondbacks
    4.3 Points
  • Chicago Cubs
    4.6 Points
Big Win
  • ARI
    17.1%
  • CHC
    20.0%
Close Win
  • ARI
    21.5%
  • CHC
    26.1%

Game Prediction

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are 25-21 at home this season and the Arizona Diamondbacks are 23-24 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cubs starter Justin Steele is forecasted to have a better game than Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. Justin Steele has a 37% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Merrill Kelly has a 30% chance of a QS. If Justin Steele has a quality start the Cubs has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.8 and he has a 34% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cubs win 59%. In Merrill Kelly quality starts the Diamondbacks win 62%. He has a 39% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 62% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Chicago Cubs is Justin Steele who averaged 3.11 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 67% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cubs have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Arizona Diamondbacks is Merrill Kelly who averaged 3.43 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 77% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Diamondbacks have a 53% chance of winning.
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Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Corbin Carroll 4.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.03
Ketel Marte 4.3 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.4 0.17
Joc Pederson 4.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 1.7 0.19
Christian Walker 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.6 0.21
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 4.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 1.2 0.09
Jake McCarthy 3.9 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.07
Eugenio Suarez 3.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.9 0.11
Gabriel Moreno 3.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.03
Merrill Kelly 3.9 0.6 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Merrill Kelly 5.3 3.0 6.8 2.9 1.6 7.0 0.65 0.40 0.42
Relievers 2.7 1.5 3.3 1.5 1.0 3.5 0.34 0.06 0.12

Batting

Pitching

Chicago Cubs

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Nico Hoerner 4.3 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.06
Seiya Suzuki 4.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 1.5 0.16
Cody Bellinger 4.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.14
Christopher Morel 3.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.18
Patrick Wisdom 3.8 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.16
Dansby Swanson 3.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.13
Ian Happ 3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.11
David Bote 3.7 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.07
Justin Steele 3.6 0.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Justin Steele 5.4 2.8 6.9 2.7 1.9 7.2 0.57 0.45 0.36
Relievers 3.1 1.5 3.5 1.4 1.3 4.3 0.34 0.09 0.10

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Chicago Cubs
  • Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Chicago Cubs
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks RECORD Chicago Cubs RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 23-24, 49% 169 Record at Home 25-21, 54% -156 Arizona Diamondbacks
VS Chicago Cubs 1-2, 33% -121 VS Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1, 67% 134 Chicago Cubs
vs Team Under .500 26-18, 59% 9 vs Team .500 or Better 28-31, 47% -69 Arizona Diamondbacks
Record As Road Underdog 18-18, 50% 402 Record As Home Favorite 17-16, 52% -548 Arizona Diamondbacks
When Merrill Kelly Starts 3-3, 50% -110 When Justin Steele Starts 5-7, 42% -280 Arizona Diamondbacks
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks RECORD Chicago Cubs RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 6-5, 55% 260 Record at Home 5-5, 50% -100 Arizona Diamondbacks
VS Chicago Cubs 0-0 No Games VS Arizona Diamondbacks 0-0 No Games N/A
vs Team .500 or Better 8-8, 50% 186 vs Team .500 or Better 4-6, 40% -149 Arizona Diamondbacks
Record As Road Underdog 6-4, 60% 360 Record As Home Favorite 4-4, 50% -108 Arizona Diamondbacks
When Merrill Kelly Starts 0-1, 0% -100 When Justin Steele Starts 3-0, 100% 256 Chicago Cubs
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Arizona Diamondbacks RECORD Chicago Cubs RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 25-21, 54% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 20-25, 44% Over UNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 7-4, 64% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 4-6, 40% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 45-43, 51% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 43-37, 54% Over UNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Merrill Kelly STARTS 4-2, 67% Over OVER-UNDER IN Justin Steele STARTS 4-8, 33% Over N/A
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