MLB: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
The Cleveland Guardians are 26-22 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Detroit Tigers who are 20-22 at home. The Guardians have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Guardians starter Ben Lively is forecasted to have a better game than Tigers starter Kenta Maeda. Ben Lively has a 58% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Kenta Maeda has a 37% chance of a QS. If Ben Lively has a quality start the Guardians has a 79% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.1 and he has a 30% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Guardians win 65%. In Kenta Maeda quality starts the Tigers win 59%. He has a 10% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 59% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Detroit Tigers is Riley Greene who averaged 1.96 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 30% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Tigers have a 45% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Cleveland Guardians is Steven Kwan who averaged 2.74 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 51% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Guardians have a 76% chance of winning.
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