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Game Details

MLB
Cincinnati Reds
0
Philadelphia Phillies
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

7.5

Accuscore Probability

 
 
7
under
8
over
Money Line
PHI  52.1%
Side Value
CIN  11.5%
47.9%
52.1%
Game Projection
  • Cincinnati Reds
    4.9 Points
  • Philadelphia Phillies
    4.7 Points
Big Win
  • CIN
    22.2%
  • PHI
    21.0%
Close Win
  • CIN
    18.9%
  • PHI
    23.7%

Game Prediction

MLB: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies are 2-2 at home this season and the Cincinnati Reds are 1-0 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Spencer Turnbull has a 22% chance of a QS and Graham Ashcraft a 21% chance. If Spencer Turnbull has a quality start the Phillies has a 76% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4 and he has a 37% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 57%. If Graham Ashcraft has a quality start the Reds has a 71% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.4 and he has a 40% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 55%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Spencer Turnbull who averaged 2.95 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 62% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 66% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Graham Ashcraft who averaged 3.26 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 72% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 58% chance of winning.
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Cincinnati Reds

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Jonathan India 4.5 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.11
Will Benson 4.3 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 2.1 0.10
Christian Encarnation 4.4 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 1.9 0.21
Jeimer Candelario 4.2 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.12
Jake Fraley 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.16
Elly De La Cruz 4.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 2.1 0.11
Spencer Steer 3.9 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.11
Nick Martini 3.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.26
Graham Ashcraft 3.9 0.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Graham Ashcraft 4.8 3.1 7.3 3.0 1.3 5.7 0.66 0.42 0.42
Relievers 3.2 1.7 3.8 1.7 1.3 5.7 0.41 0.06 0.10

Batting

Pitching

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Kyle Schwarber 4.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.9 0.29
Trea Turner 4.4 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.14
Bryce Harper 4.0 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.5 1.3 0.17
J.T. Realmuto 4.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.14
Alec Bohm 4.1 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.09
Bryson Stott 3.9 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.07
Nick Castellanos 3.9 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.10
Brandon Marsh 3.7 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.08
Spencer Turnbull 3.7 0.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Spencer Turnbull 4.8 3.2 7.2 3.1 1.6 6.6 0.74 0.41 0.38
Relievers 3.6 1.6 3.9 1.6 1.1 6.4 0.43 0.11 0.10

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Cincinnati Reds
  • Philadelphia Phillies
  • Cincinnati Reds
  • Philadelphia Phillies
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds RECORD Philadelphia Phillies RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 1-0, 100% 128 Record at Home 2-2, 50% 17 Cincinnati Reds
VS Philadelphia Phillies 1-0, 100% 128 VS Cincinnati Reds 0-1, 0% -100 Cincinnati Reds
vs Team .500 or Better 1-0, 100% 128 vs Team .500 or Better 2-2, 50% 17 Cincinnati Reds
Record As Road Underdog 1-0, 100% 128 Record As Home Favorite 0-1, 0% -100 Cincinnati Reds
When Graham Ashcraft Starts 0-0 No Games When Spencer Turnbull Starts 0-0 No Games N/A
LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds RECORD Philadelphia Phillies RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 44-37, 54% 1607 Record at Home 55-34, 62% 323 Cincinnati Reds
VS Philadelphia Phillies 3-4, 43% -57 VS Cincinnati Reds 4-3, 57% -59 Cincinnati Reds
vs Team .500 or Better 41-47, 47% 414 vs Team Under .500 43-29, 60% -285 Cincinnati Reds
Record As Road Underdog 36-32, 53% 1452 Record As Home Favorite 46-26, 64% 194 Cincinnati Reds
When Graham Ashcraft Starts 10-15, 40% -330 When Spencer Turnbull Starts 2-3, 40% 34 Philadelphia Phillies
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Cincinnati Reds RECORD Philadelphia Phillies RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 1-0, 100% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 3-1, 75% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 1-0, 100% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 3-1, 75% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 42-36, 54% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 38-41, 48% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Graham Ashcraft STARTS 0-0 No Games OVER-UNDER IN Spencer Turnbull STARTS 0-0 No Games N/A
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