NCAAF: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Troy Trojans
AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Western Kentucky winning 50% of simulations, and Troy 50% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Western Kentucky commits fewer turnovers in 36% of simulations and they go on to win 61% when they take care of the ball. Troy wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Austin Reed is averaging 287 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38% chance) then he helps his team win 70%. Kimani Vidal is averaging 115 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is TROY -3.5 --- Over/Under line is 56.5
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