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AccuScore Picks Clinton to Beat Trump But It’s Close

Accuscore predicts Clinton to win narrowly.

Accuscore is well known of its sports predictions. We cover all major sports in USA as well as top 10 soccer leagues round the world. Top of sports we have predicted Eurovision song contests and different elections in Europe. Now it is time to predict next president of the United States.

The same methods that we are using in sports are used in the presidential elections as well. Gathering historical elections data, national polls and statewide polls into simulation algorithm that predicts the probability of the winner in each state. Based on this overall probability to win race to the white house has been calculated.

As many of you know, the elections are decided in handful of states. Our simulations count 20 “sure” states for Donald Trump that would result 154 electoral votes. At the same time Hillary Clinton should have ensured 182 electoral votes from 15 states. The probability to win these states is over 80% for respective candidates.

Donald Trump has the win probability between 60% and 80% in Arizona, Missouri and Georgia. He is the favorite to win additional 37 electoral votes from these states. Hillary Clinton has similar edge in our simulations in New Jersey, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and Colorado. However, in Michigan and Colorado just above 60%. These five states count 54 votes to Clinton’s result.

The state is a swing state if either of the candidates have under 60% probability to win the state based on the 10000+ simulations. In this race following states are included into this category:

- Iowa: Trump 52%
- New Hampshire: Clinton 55%
- Nevada: Trump 51%
- Virginia: Clinton 57%
- Florida: Trump 52%
- North Carolina: Trump 53%
- Ohio: Trump 56%
- Pennsylvania: Clinton 56%

Simulation results show extremely tight race with Clinton taking the grand prize with 273 electoral votes against Trump’s 265. When we look at the probabilities for a win, Clinton has slight edge around 62% probability for a win against Trump’s 38%.

Why our simulation shows better chances for Trump compared to some other predictors and polls? What we have seen in elections and referendums in many European countries, is that populistic movements that are trying to shake political establishment, are generally not shown even 98% correctly in polls.

Studies have found out many reasons for this, but most notable are:

1) Shyness: people don’t want to tell pollsters that they are voting for this party or candidate
2) Sample: some of these people are not usually voting or have otherwise been underrepresented in polling samples
3) Calculation corrections: pollsters smooth some of the opinion changes with corrective calculation formulas that are usually bias against populists

Even though polls were showing Donald Trump’s support reasonably well during primaries, there is quite a bit uncertainty in his results. Many swing states are very close calls and it won’t be a very big surprise, if Trump would end up winning. Or Hillary win with 330+ electoral votes.

For betting, Trump’s odds around 6.0 (+500) or 16% probability is worth of betting and a great value bet. Only problem for making great money in presidential elections betting is that the games are only every fourth year. Even though you make money by hitting your value bets now and then, you could end up losing 12 years in a row. That’s why we prefer sports betting.

Today’s Free Sports Predictions

Date Team Acc Sim% Odds% PS OU
Acc OU
ML Point Spread Total
2024-05-24 20:30:00 24/05
20:30 PM
DAL
MIN
58.5
41.4
0.00
0.00
MIN 0 N/A
213
Date Team Acc Sim% Odds% PS OU
Acc OU
ML SV Total
2024-05-24 19:00:00 24/05
19:00 AM
FLA
NYR
34.3
65.7
34.0
66.0
FLA 1 6.5
5

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Date Team Acc Sim% Odds% PS OU
Acc OU
ML SV Total
2024-05-24 19:10:00 24/05
19:10 AM
SF
NYM
49.4
50.5
50.8
49.2
NYM 0 N/A
9

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What is Accuscore?


Accuscore provides predictive analytics on sports, based on the company’s own algorithmic simulation engine which has been under constant development for almost two decades. Sports predictions are an outcome of simulations in which individual games are simulated for thousands of times in order to arrive to the most likely results. These results are then used to create analytical predictions, content and advice for bettors, pundits or any stakeholders in the industry or media field. For the individual US users, Accuscore’s predictions can be accessed through subscription to BetQL.

The Accuscore simulation engine uses the relevant historical data of the players, teams and leagues to predict the outcomes of the games before they have started. The simulation results are based on the individual player performances and weighted according to the teams’ form, opponent and other circumstances that have been proven relevant to the outcome of the match. We have managed to filter out the unnecessary data-points by determining which are important and which are not – this has taken several hundreds of thousands of simulations, cross-references and comparisons of simulation results to actual outcomes.

Accuscore aims to provide independent, unbiased and objective sports predictions for all the customers. We strive to be transparent and all our simulations results are available in the archives. Throughout the years Accuscore has worked with several betting companies, for example Pinnacle and Coolbet, media houses such as Telia and Sporing News, sports teams and leagues, and of course individuals through our subscription service.

Our capabilities include tailoring the sports predictions service to any B2B need with different licensing models, revenue sharing programs or affiliate markets. We can package content based on the simulations in several different ways, which can include automated widgets, unique articles, videos or pure numbers from a feed – whatever suits your needs!

Which sports does Accuscore cover?

Currently Accuscore provides detailed sports predictions for most of the popular sports and leagues in the World. The current offering includes:
  • American Football: NFL and College Football
  • Basketball: NBA and College Basketball
  • Baseball: MLB baseball
  • Ice Hockey: NHL, Finnish Liiga, Swedish SHL and World Championships
  • Football (soccer) leagues:
    • Champions League
    • English Premier League
    • Spanish La Liga
    • Italian Serie A
    • German Bundesliga
    • French Ligue 1
    • Scottish Premier League
    • Portuguese Liga
    • Netherlands Eredivisie
    • Mexican Liga MX
    • North-American MLS
    • Chinese Super League
    • English Championship, League One and League Two
    • Major international tournaments: World Cup, Euro, Copa America

Accuscore’s newly implemented model for eSports is currently in its testing phase and the CSGO (Counter Strike: Global Offensive) sports predictions can be found from our sister site.

We also have capability to add leagues on request and provide unique, tailor-made service.

How to use Accuscore sports predictions?

Accuscore’s simulations provide various advantages for both businesses and individuals. The simulations are based on a sovereign algorithmic system and all the simulations are always ran the exact same way. The only variables are the data inputs which the simulation engine then uses to create the sports predictions according to the algorithmic model. The model has a proven track record and for example the NFL picks have provided constant profit over the years.

The simulations provide probabilities for the outcomes of the games which include – depending of the sport – for example the most likely final result, the amount of goals or points and player performances. These sport predictions can be compared to odds in order to make a more educated betting decision or they can be used to support, oppose or adjust ones view on the betting market.

For businesses the sports predictions provide an opportunity to use original content in various forms which can be modified to suit any need, for example: providing more information to customers, attracting traffic or users, as unique content to publish or for other marketing purposes such as short videos for social media. We are happy to tailor our service for each B2B customer.

How to join Accuscore and secure the best sports predictions?

The best way to start using the Accuscore sports predictions is to subscribe to our service which includes a free seven-day trial period. Subscription allows access to all the sports predictions, historical archives and articles. If you are not happy with the service, you can cancel the subscription within the seven-day period with no cost.

We are also providing a daily free preview on the Accuscore site, so be sure to check back regularly to catch the prediction for the oncoming game. Occasionally we are also providing picks from our experts, based on the simulations. The picks can be found from our free expert picks page.

For any B2B needs, feel free to contact us through customer service or look us up at LinkedIn or Facebook!

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