Written by Colin Kennedy

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Wild Card: Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

In what will be their third matchup this season, I expect this upcoming playoff game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers to play like the others from this past season. Minnesota forced its way into the playoffs last week with a home victory against the Pack, however Green Bay won the division. Like the other games, Saturday will be feature Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson running wild on the Packer’s defense, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will complete a ridiculously high percentage of his passes, and ultimately the home team will win by the final score of 34-16.

Green Bay comes into Saturday as heavy favorites winning nearly 81 percent of the simulations conducted by AccuScore. Behind the accurate arm of Rodgers (simulated averages of 295 passing yards, almost three touchdowns), the Packers are favored by 9.5 points and won by an average score of 31.5 to 18.5 in sims. Minnesota covers the spread just 38.8% of the time. The teams combine to top the posted total of 46 points 58.4% of the time. Green Bay wins by double digits over 60% of the time.

While Adrian Peterson had a brilliant Week 17 against this same defense, his 199 yards weren’t the difference maker. Young quarterback Christian Ponder finally had a good game as he completed 16 of 28 for 234 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite averaging 106.2 yards in his career at Lambeau Field, the Vikings have won just once there with Peterson in the lineup. While the Packers have let Peterson compile gaudy numbers in the past, they have always seemed to come out on top despite such an disproportional run to pass yards allowed to Minnesota. Peterson simulated somewhat low numbers considering he averaged more than 200 yards in his games against the Packers; AccuScore predicts 111 rushing yards and one touchdown. If he comes close to these figures, Minnesota would have likely abandoned the run in favor of the pass.

Green Bay has dominated the Vikings and the rest of their divisional rivals; last week’s loss was their first in the division over the last two seasons. While Ponder had a great game last week, I expect him to replicate numbers closer to those he accumulated December 2. Ponder completed under half of his attempts and threw two interceptions with just 119 yards in that 23-14 loss at Lambeau. In his career against the Packers, Ponder has thrown for just three touchdowns and five interceptions.

Green Bay’s Rodgers has been the polar opposite of Ponder. He is again in the MVP discussion, and has 16 touchdowns to one interception in his last five games against Minnesota. Rodgers finished the season with 4,295 passing yards and a 39:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also added 259 yards rushing scoring twice on the ground. Minnesota cornerback Antoine Winfield is questionable for this game, but I doubt he would make a huge difference against this loaded Packer's receiving corps. Rodgers has thrown the ball with surgical accuracy once again leading the league in quarterback rating.

Rodgers is expected to get little help from the run game. Leading running back Dujuan Harris is projected for just 38 yards rushing and 0.3 TDs. Rodgers does benefit from the return of wide receiver Greg Jennings. Though he finished the season ranked fifth on his own team in receptions, Jennings had a solid game last week recording eight receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns.

Adding gasoline to the fire will be the return of CB/SS Charles Woodson, who will finally suit up for the first time since Week 7. Woodson and outside linebacker Clay Matthews (who returned last week) should greatly improve the Packers pass defense. Matthews especially will aid this unit as he generated 13 of the team's 47 total sacks. These two late season additions will further strengthen the home side; Green Bay’s defense has already improved these past few weeks (tighter and more cohesive), and it stands to get better.

Defensive stars aren’t the only returning players for Green Bay, which has won nine of their past eleven games. Leading receiver Randall Cobb has returned to practice from an ankle injury, while starting receiver Jordy Nelson should still play after re aggravating his knee in Sunday’s loss. Combined with other Jennings and James Jones (they go five men deep if you include tight end Jermichael Finley), the Packer offense should be firing on all cylinders against the porous Vikings secondary.

The one ailing area for Green Bay would be their offensive line, where they have struggled to replace right tackle Bryan Bulaga since his Week 9 injury against the Cardinals. Rodgers was sacked 51 times in 2012, ranking last in the league. Fortunately for the Vikings, they have a clear advantage with their elite pass rush. Expect the Packers to show respect to Minnesota defensive end Everson Griffen who recorded three sacks in his team’s victory last week. Despite recording 12 sacks (a down year for him), end Jared Allen had a fourth of his season total against the Pack. Green Bay tackles Marshall Newhouse and Don Barclay should be ready for a dogfight on Saturday; things could get dirty. Minnesota projects for almost three sacks and 1.2 turnovers forced.

I’m not expecting Saturday to be close. Although the Vikings defeated their nemesis this past week, the Packers played well down the stretch, and have homefield advantage. Expect Peterson to have another huge game, but also for the Green Bay secondary to pick apart Ponder and create multiple turnovers. Historically, even if his line can’t protect him, Rodgers has put up huge numbers against the Vikings secondary. The Packers beat the spread and win 34-16.