Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @RohitGhosh on Twitter

Peyton Manning returns to Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday to face the Indianapolis Colts for a true must-see match-up. Everyone wants to see how Manning does against his former team, if he tries to prove a point to the management that let him go in March of 2012. Even without Manning, however, the Colts have been impressive at home, posting a 9-2 record under new quarterback Andrew Luck. Given Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay’s recent comments to the media regarding Manning’s playoff record, many expect the Broncos to play flawless football in support of Manning.

Not an AccuScore member? Use the coupon code "nflmonth" and get 25% off a monthly membership.

AccuScore has the Denver Broncos as solid 65.0 percent favorites to win this match-up. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 31-25; the Colts have a 53 percent chance at covering the +6.5 spread. The Colts have covered 12 of their last 20 games as the underdog, and are 11-2 straight up, 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in their past 13 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games; there is a 51.5 percent chance the total combined score goes UNDER 55.5 this week.

Projected Leaders
Passing: Peyton Manning (DEN) 305.0 yds | Andrew Luck (IND) 272.5 yds
Rushing: Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 81.5 yds | Trent Richardson (IND) 75 yds
Receiving: Demaryius Thomas (DEN) 102.2 yds | Reggie Wayne (IND) 71.3 yds | T.Y. Hilton (IND) 50.2 yds

What to Watch For

Denver’s offense has been near-perfect so far this season, taking apart every defense they’ve faced with absolute precision. The passing offense ranks No. 1 in the league with 360.7 yards per game, while the rushing offense is No. 15 in the league at 115.r yards per game. To put it into perspective – the 35 points Denver scored in last week’s victory vs the Jaguars was their lowest of the season. It was also Manning’s first game this season throwing for less than 300 yards (295 yds, 2TDS, 1 INT). This week should prove to be the toughest matchup yet for the Denver offense.

The Colts defense ranks No. 5 in the league, giving up just 205.7 yards per game so far this season. They tend to run a hybrid 3-4 scheme that gives the defense a range of blitz options. It forces the quarter back to spend an extra moment trying to read where the blitz is coming from, while giving the secondary the chance to be more aggressive than usual.
The Broncos will be better off letting RB Knowshon Moreno take control of the offense early on to keep that Indianapolis defense on its heels in the second half. We know Manning can get the ball to his army of receivers, but given how solid the Colts have been in stopping the passing game, they’ll be better off trusting Moreno.  In the past three games, he has run for five TDs and even caught 13 passes. Moreno leads the NFL with seven rushing scores, averaging 4.7 yards per carry for Denver’s high-octane offense.

Moreno faces a Colts defense that let San Diego RB Ryan Matthews explode for 102 yards on 22 carries. Moreno is projected to carry the ball 18-19 times for 82 yards. He has rushed for 90 or more yards in four of Denver’s previous five games.

Prediction

The Colts are coming off a short week after last week’s Monday Night Football loss in San Diego. The lack of rest could be an issue, but I expect the magnitude of this week’s match-up and the home crowd to provide enough of an adrenaline rush to nullify any advantage Denver has with the extra rest.

There is very little chance either team wins in blowout fashion. AccuScore has the Broncos winning by an average margin of about six points, and there is not much evidence to say that will be wrong. I’ll take Denver 37-33.