Written by Rohit Ghosh

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After coming up short in the final minutes of last week's game against Denver, Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys (2-3) look to get back on track this week as they host the Washington Redskins (1-3). Coming off a bye week, the Redskins hope the extra time they've had to scout and prepare for this week's match-up results in a much-needed victory. Can Washington contain an explosive Dallas offense? Or will QB Tony Romo pick apart the Washington secondary for another monster game?

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AccuScore has the Cowboys as solid 56.8 percent favorites to win with an average score of 28-26 in simulations. The Redskins have a 58 percent chance of covering the +6 spread. Dallas has nearly twice the chance of winning by double digits whereas both teams have comparable probabilities at a close win (4 points or fewer). There is a 52.5 percent chance the overall combined score goes over 52.

Dallas is 0-6 against the spread in their last six meetings with the Redskins. The Redskins went 2-0 straight up and against the spread against the Cowboys last season. The total has gone over in four of Washington's last five road games and in six of Dallas's last seven home games.

Projected Leaders

Passing: Tony Romo (DAL) 322.9 yds | Robert Griffin III (WAS) 248.1 yds

Rushing: DeMarco Murray (DAL) 89.1 yds | Alfred Morris (WAS) 77.3 yds | Robert Griffin III (WAS) 51.8 yds

Receiving: Dez Bryant (DAL) 133.0 yds | Pierre Garcon (WAS) 84.8 yds

Washington’s Defense Will Likely Cost Them the Game

After completing 25 of 36 pass attempts for a franchise-record 506 yards and career high-tying five touchdowns last Sunday, Tony Romo threw an interception that ultimately led to a game-winning field goal for the Broncos. Lucky for him, the Redskins pass defense he is facing this week is terrible, almost as bad as the Cowboys’ pass defense. Washington is giving up 298.2 yards per game which ranks 26th in the league. The Washington rush defense is even worse, ranking 28th in the league. With weapons like Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and even rookie receiver Terrance Williams, Dallas should have no problem throwing for yards on Sunday.

For Washington, limiting the Cowboys on the ground will be even more important. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray is off to a great start this year, managing to stay healthy and productive. He has 399 yards on 84 carries (4.8 ypa) and two TDs through his first five games of the season. While the return of DE Jarvis Jenkins should help the defense this week, it won’t be enough to change how each team game plans or executes. A few missed tackles early on could yield a huge night for Murray. He’s projected to carry the ball 18 times for 89 yards.

The Cowboys pass defense has been practically non-existent so far this season, giving up over 325 yards per game. Washington is eighth best passing offense this year, but after giving up 66 points to Washington in two games last season, I expect the Cowboys to take this week’s game personally. Prior to the team’s bye-week, Griffin threw for 227 yards and a touchdown, and more importantly no turnovers for the first time this season. The difference between last season’s games and the one this week will be Griffin’s proclivity to run with the ball.  He does not seem as confident as he was last year in that aspect - understandably so due to injury - and has become a bit more predictable to read for the defense.

Prediction

AccuScore simulations project a 1.6 point margin of victory for Dallas.

I expect Washington's secondary to struggle in the second half against the Cowboys' offense. Dallas wins 27-17.