Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @RohitGhosh on Twitter
The Detroit Lions (3-1) have jumped out to an early lead in NFC North rankings and look to continue the strong start to the season this week vs the the Green Bay Packers (1-2). Coming off a bye week,the Packers will look to get back on track against a team they’ve had success against – GB has won 14 of its last 15 meetings vs Detroit. Can Detroit extend their game and half lead in the division this week?
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AccuScore simulations have the Packers as solid 73.7 percent favorites to win this week, covering the -7.5 spread in nearly 54 percent of simulations. The average score in the 10,000 simulations is 33-24.
Projected Leaders
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (GNB) 320.2 yds
Rushing: Eddie Lacy (GNB) 58.4 yds
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (DET) 103.5 yds
The Facts
Passing- Detroit Lions: 309 yards per game | Green Bay Packers: 326.7 yards per game
Rushing- Detroit Lions: 95.8 yards per game | Green Bay Packers: 128 yards per game while the Packers are averaging 128 yards per contest
Passing yards against per game- Detroit Lions: 268 yards against per game | Green Bay Packers: 311 yards against per game
Rushing yards against per game- Detroit Lions: 110.8 yards against per game | Green Bay Packers: 93.3 yards against per game
Key to the Game
The Detroit Lions must focus on two aspects of the game if they want to come out on top this week: stopping the run and continuing their stalwart defense on third downs.
From giving up a a 78-yard touchdown to Adrian Peterson on the defense’s first play of the season to giving up a 53-yard score to Matt Forte in Week 4, the Lions continue to give up big plays on the ground. Detroit’s defense is better than the numbers suggest, but it has yet to suffocate the opposition’s offense for an extended period of time. A [healthier] Green Bay offense will find gaps to exploit this Sunday.
On third downs this year, the Lions are allowing just one completion in every five third-downs. Against the Chicago bears, Detroit did not allow a third-down conversion in the first 55 minutes of the game; the Bears had some completions in the final five minutes when Detroit switched to a prevent zone. The Packers on the other hand are shockingly abysmal in third-down completions. Their offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in third-down conversion rate.
Watch for Turnovers: Surprisingly the Packers are on the negative side of turnover differential so far this season. To get back up to .500, Green Bay has to be more careful with the ball.
Kenny Clark on the Matchup
Former Minnesota Viking WR Kenny Clark sits down to discuss this week’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Read more about Clark here.
Who wins this Sunday?
Kenny: “I think the Packers win this one. It’s in Lambeau and they’re coming off a bye week. I don’t know if they’ll cover, but they’ll definitely win. Detroit hasn’t won in Green Bay in YEARS.”
Detroit has given up some big plays on the ground this year (Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte). Do you expect Green Bay to attack on the ground early ?
Kenny: “I don't know if Green Bay will attack on ground. I mean, when you got Aaron Rodgers, you wanna utilize that first and foremost. He'll QB the game as he sees fit. Top 3 QB in the league, he’ll know exactly how to attack that Detroit defense.”
Detroit has been solid with their third down defense so far this season, while the Packers offense has been horrible on third downs. Will that trend continue this week?
Kenny: “I don't expect the trend to continue. With the receivers they have, they'll start converting. It's inevitable. They'll work out the kinks.”
Who wins the NFC North this year? Detroit, Chicago, GB, Minnesota - current standings
Kenny: “Green Bay will win the division. Detroit hasn't played too touch of a schedule - Look for the Packers to make some big noise in the playoffs. Only team in my eyes that can challenge Seattle or SF for the NFC crown.”
