Written by Jonathan Lee

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Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans

The Titans are one of the surprise teams at the quarter mark, but now they run into THE surprise of the NFL: Kansas City.  The Chiefs are 4-0 with Alex Smith running a mistake-free relatively conservative offense paired with a stout defense.  The Titans are without quarterback Jake Locker and running back Shonn Greene this week.  The Chiefs had more than 10 players appear on their injury report this week, but only tackle Eric Fisher (out) looks like it could be a concern.  They are 8th in total defense and 3rd against the pass.  That lines up with Tennessee’s biggest weakness.  The Titans rank just 29th in passing, and will be led by Ryan Fitzpatrick this week.  I like the road team to win by a score to cover.

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will be without starting CB Dimitri Patterson, and might again be without pass rush extraordinaire Cameron Wake.  That should help a banged up Baltimore passing game.  The Ravens are winning outright in simulations nearly 53 percent of the time with points expected to be at a premium.   After giving Ray Rice just five carries last week, expect Baltimore to turn to their star running back much more often.  The teams are combining for only 39 points on average in projections so I will take the points.