Written by Jon Lee

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Analyst’s Top Week 16 NFL Picks

With only 2 weeks remaining in the National Football League, our analyst is back with three new picks including a free pick on the Chargers and Jets game. Both teams have been coached extremely poorly over the past two weeks and it is probably fitting that two coaches who expect to be fired battle for a meaningless win. In any case, there is also a totals pick on the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks game and a pick against the spread in the St. Louis Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers game.

As is the case every week, the first pick is free but AccuScore members get all of the analyst picks. MEMBERS: Sign in NOW!

Free Pick of the Week

San Diego Chargers +127 at New York Jets
AccuScore projects the Chargers as basically 50/50 this weekend going up against the Jets and new starting quarterback Greg McElroy. San Diego wins 50.7 percent of simulations outright, but the +127 money line translates to just a 44 percent implied probability. This line is probably a result of people expected the Jets to get a big emotional boost from finally benching Mark Sanchez. That might be possible, but McElroy isn’t exactly an exciting young QB prospect, and the Jets still aren’t a very good offensive team otherwise having scored 38 total points over the last 3 weeks. This is a pretty good value spot.

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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Over 39 Points
Simulations project an average of 43 total points in this game. I think this total is relatively low because these are two of the best defenses in the NFL in a rivalry game with Seattle having that great homefield advantage. Seattle however has scored 108 points in the last two games while the Niners have scored 68 points the last two weeks. Both teams are putting up points in bunches, and have shown big plays can be made by both special teams and the defenses to set up scores. I think this will happen at least once on Sunday which should be enough to get to 40 total points in my opinion. The Over occurs in 60.9 percent of simulations.

St. Louis Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Rams are a surprising 5-1 ATS on the road this year while the Bucs are 3-3-1 ATS at home (compared to 6-1 ATS on the road themselves). The Bucs have lost their last four games hitting bottom last week getting shut out 41-0 to New Orleans. The Rams are not a great team by any means, but the team is playing hard under Jeff Fisher and the defense is playing pretty well ranking 9th in passing yards against and 16th in passing yards against.

Also, AccuScore’s computer has picks against the spread and on totals for every game this week. Visit the NFL Picks Page