Written by Colin Kennedy

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San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl Preview

This Sunday not only marks the 47th Super Bowl, but also the first time in history featuring two brothers going head-to-head to win their sport’s respective championship. The Harbaugh brothers have taken different paths to reach this point, but both teams are remarkably similar: playmaking defenses that support sometimes inconsistent offenses. On paper and via AccuScore simulations, the season’s final match-up looks to be almost an exact coin flip. Both the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers averaged 22 points and 1.4 turnovers in simulations with Baltimore winning 51.1 percent of the time. The Ravens have the slightest advantage in simulated wins, but the 49ers' defense will be the game's strongest unit and the Ravens' defense, in my opinion, will prove to be too slow against 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

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San Francisco finished the regular season ranked 4th defensively in both passing yards (200.2) and rushing yards (94.2), finishing third in overall defense behind Pittsburgh and Denver. The unit also forced 25 turnovers while finishing in the top 10 in sacks (41). Although injuries have hurt the effectiveness of defensive end Justin Smith (which has in turn limited the pass rushing abilities of outside linebacker Aldon Smith), the unit has remained an elite force throughout this postseason.

Against the explosive pass offense of the Green Bay Packers during the Divisional round, the 49ers allowed just 352 total yards and limited reigning Aaron Rodgers to just 257 passing yards and 2 touchdowns during their 45-31 victory. More impressively, Harbaugh’s defense shutout Atlanta’s balanced attack in the second half of the NFC Championship, allowing their own offense to catch up to eventually overtake the top-seeded Falcons and reach the Super Bowl.

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However, with two full weeks for both sides to prepare, how will this normally stout defense hold up against an explosive offense like the Ravens? The first defensive key for San Francisco will be their pass rush, specifically Aldon Smith. Although Smith has yet to record a sack this postseason, he will be lining up against an offense line that has given up the most sacks this postseason (6). When this unit is at full strength, Smith is the most feared pass rusher so expect the layoff to be beneficial for him.

Ravens left tackle Bryant McKinnie has returned to the starting unit after spending most of the season on the bench moving Michael Oher from left to right tackle. Still, Aldon Smith has a clear speed advantage over the 33-year old lineman. Given quarterback Joe Flacco’s penchant for looking for the long ball, both Justin and Aldon Smith should be able to generate ample pressure on their opposing quarterback. San Francisco averaged 2.6 sacks in simulations.

However, the main positional battle will be between the Niners' linebackers and the Ravens running backs. Led by Ray Rice, Baltimore has 446 rushing yards through three postseason games. Known for his elusiveness, Rice gives most linebackers fits as he is Baltimore’s best offensive weapon. Rice is currently leading the postseason with 247 yards on the ground with two touchdowns, and almost another 70 yards receiving. He is expected to contribute close to 100 total yards, and is a good bet to score this Sunday. Luckily for San Francisco, both of their Pro Bowl inside linebackers are great in coverage and stopping the run.

Middle linebacker Patrick Willis racked up 11 solo tackles against the Falcons, but fellow backer Navarro Bowman was commended following the game for his run stopping abilities, limiting the Falcons just 81 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry. While the Raven’s offensive line (including fullback Vonta Leach) has played very well during the postseason, the Niners' defensive line (including the injured J. Smith) is among the NFL elite. In terms of the Raven’s run game, it will be up to Willis & Bowman to stop Rice and limit his touches. Willis is a good bet to reach double digit tackles; in fact he’s my pick for the game’s MVP.

The one distinct advantage the Ravens’ offense will hold over this 49er’s unit is in the match-ups out wide and downfield. Niner safety Dashon Goldson failed to make big plays against the Falcons, and was even burned on 46 yard play-action touchdown by Matt Ryan. I expect the Ravens’ offense to be especially aggressive with play-action, and they have the right pieces to give 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio nightmares. Second-year wide receiver Torrey Smith has become a reliable deep threat for Flacco, while Anquan Boldin is perhaps the league’s most physical wideout. While San Francisco’s secondary is their only defensive unit not among the league’s elite, they do a great job limiting big play opportunities for the most part.

Throughout this season, Fangio often blitzed one of his safeties, but against Baltimore he must conservatively use this tactic in order to preserve a safety net against Flacco and his arm. Flacco, arguably the league’s best deep passer, currently holds an incredible 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio in three playoff games. Simulations currently hold Flacco having a safe game: 267 passing yards and a 1.2:0.7 TD-to-INT ratio. I expect his touchdown total to be higher, and if the Ravens fall behind early, his yardage to skyrocket.

The real question on everyone’s mind is how will San Francisco’s budding star quarterback Kaepernick play and handle himself in the Big Game? Though Jim Harbaugh created controversy by benching Alex Smith in favor of the second-year player from Nevada, the switch has paid off as showcased in their victories over the Packers and Falcons. We still haven’t seen everything from Kaepernick. He’s proven he can pass, he’s proven he can run, he’s proven he can win big games, but has he proven he can beat an elite defense?

While the Ravens certainly did not play like their usual "elite" selves during the regular season, they have collectively stepped their game up during the postseason. The return of MLB Ray Lewis has given the team both a physical and emotional lift to the sagging defense. Lewis leads the postseason in tackles (44), and the Ravens have already recorded five interceptions and will look for more against Kaepernick.

Fortunately for San Francisco, this Ravens defense somewhat resembles the Packers in terms of strengths. Both Baltimore and Green Bay are known for their ability to rush the pass and force interceptions, but both appear vulnerable to the 49er pistol offense due to their lack of speed in the linebacker unit. Packer defensive coordinator Dom Capers attempted to eliminate running back Frank Gore (but was still unable to) and focus his defense’s energy up the middle. As a result, Kaepernick put the game away himself running outside to the tune of a record-breaking 181 rushing yards.

The following week, Falcon defensive coordinator Mike Nolan stopped Kaepernick from running (allowing just 21 yards) but failed to limit the Niners’ other backs as Gore and LaMichael James romped through the Atlanta defense for 128 yards. Don’t expect Kaepernick to reach triple digit rushing yards again, but look for the Ravens to stick Lewis as a shadow on Kaepernick in an attempt to keep him in the pocket. Lewis has the experience and has seen everything in his 17-year career.

However, this is how Kaepernick will lead his offense to victory. While Lewis has returned to his run stopping ways, he has become a huge liability in coverage. He’s allowed 15 catches on 19 targets this postseason. He can no longer keep up with quicker, more agile players; expect 49ers tight end Vernon Davis to exceed his projection of 53 yards. If the Ravens attempt to cover Davis with either safeties Ed Reed or Bernard Pollard, look for Kaepernick to go to his favorite target Michael Crabtree.

Crabtree, previously an afterthought due to Alex Smith’s less-than-average arm strength, has been given new life under Kaepernick. Since Smith’s injury against the Rams in Week 9 Crabtree has 871 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, all from Kaepernick. Crabtree poses a severe match-up problem against either of the Ravens’ cornerbacks Cary Williams and Corey Graham. Expect Crabtree to lead the game in receiving yardage and to top his 69 simulation average.

In no way will this game become a blowout. These teams are too similar and too talented for either team to jump out and hold a huge lead. Expect a close game throughout with several lead changes. The Harbaughs know each other too well to not let a great game develop. However, due to these advantages for San Francisco, I expect the franchise to add a sixth Super Bowl to their mantle and for the Bay Area to win yet another championship.

Final score: San Francisco 27 Baltimore 21