Super Bowl Prop Bets: Part 2

Below are many popular Super Bowl Prop lines. In order to make picks we translate the LINE into a LINE% with a total of 100%. We compare it to the AccuScore simulation percentage and provide you analysis on where to make the proper value bet…Visit the AccuScore NFL Picks page for AccuScore’s Super Bowl picks against the spread and on Totals. AccuScore is 10-1-1 ATS and on Over/Unders since the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, so check out AccuScore's Super Bowl Picks

Anquan Boldin

Boldin has been dominantly physical in the playoffs with some huge catches with defenders draped all over him. That said, he still only averaged 61 yards in the regular season and has 71 or less yards in 2 of his 3 games. AccuScore has Boldin right at 70 yards and a 55% chance of the other for slight value on the Under 70.5. AccuScore does have Boldin at over 4.5 catches, but when you factor for the -137 line the value is actually on under 4.5. Boldin has averaged over 14 yards per reception as a Raven and Joe Flacco is throwing a lot of deep balls even to a player perceived to be a “possession receiver”. AccuScore gives value on over 11.5 yards on Boldin’s first catch.

Torrey Smith

The 49ers pass defense has struggled against big play WRs in the playoffs (Julio Jones, Roddy White, James Jones, Greg Jennings) and Torrey Smith has had multiple big plays in all Ravens playoff games. We expect this to continue with Joe Flacco attempting a lot of big plays downfield. There is not any value in the receiving yards, but there is value on the over 3.5 receptions and over 14.5 yards on his first catch.

Jacoby Jones

Jacoby Jones had the biggest Ravens reception TD of the year vs Denver, but that was his only receiving TD since Week 2. He hasn’t had a kick or punt return TD since Week 11. AccuScore only has Jones scoring a TD 13% of the time in simulations.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree averaged 69.1 yards per game this season and is averaging 69.1 in simulations. He has gone over 78.5 in five of his last 7 games, but for the season just 6 times in 18 games. If you are someone picking the 49ers to cover the spread then taking Crabtree over 78.5 yards and over 6 receptions makes sense, but if you don’t like them covering then we advise the under 78.5 yards and under 6 receptions.

Randy Moss

Moss had over 2.5 receptions in just 5 games this season (once in playoffs) and he has 3 or more in just 25% of the simulations. With a high probability of under 2.5 receptions AccuScore also has under 34.5 receiving yards. For Moss to have over 34.5 yards or catch a TD it will likely require a big passing play. The Ravens have allowed a lot of yards, but they usually concede fewer big plays and do a great job in the Red Zone limiting teams to field goals. With this Ravens defense expect fewer big downfield plays and the under on key lines for Moss.