Super Bowl Prop Bets: Part 4 - Flacco & Kaepernick
Below are many popular Super Bowl Prop lines. In order to make picks we translate the LINE into a LINE% with a total of 100%. We compare it to the AccuScore simulation percentage.
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Joe Flacco
The difference in lines between AccuScore and the line are minimal for most of the lines. The two that stand out are Gross Passing Yards (over 235.5) and Pass Completions (under 20.5). At first glance these two picks run contrary to each other. You would think more completions go with more yards, but as most of you know Joe Flacco is known for his deep ball. The betting lines of 20.5 completions and 235.5 yards translates to 11.5 yards per completion. Flacco in the playoffs passed for 282 yards on just 12 completions vs the Colts (23.5 yards per completion), 331 yards on just 18 completions vs the Broncos (18.4 yards per completion) and 240 yards on 21 completions (11.4) vs the Patriots. So in 2 of 3 games Flacco has been well over the line. AccuScore simulations expect this trend to continue which is why we have valuer on the over 235.5 on gross passing yards and under 20.5 completions.
AccuScore’s super computer put up a 10-1-1 streak against the spread and on totals for the last two weekends of the NFL Playoffs. Entering the Super Bowl, we feel great about our picks: Take a look at AccuScore’s Super Bowl Picks
Colin Kaepernick
All of the picks for Kaepernick point to the Ravens defense stepping up and containing the dynamic SF quarterback. AccuScore has the under in passing yards, completions, rushing yards, rushing attempts and touchdowns. Despite having the over in pass attempts, AccuScore also has value on the under in pass completions . Kaepernick completed 62% of his regular season passes and nearly 64% in the playoffs, but Baltimore’s healthy defense has been great in their playoff run holding Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Brady well under their regular season completion percentage. More importantly, Baltimore’s run defense is playing much better now than it did early in the regular season. By containing the 49ers run defense they can put Kaepernick in more 3rd and long situations.
AccuScore also has Baltimore limiting Kaepernick’s rushing. In his short career as a starter Kaepernick has rushed over 6.5 times 4 games and under 6.5 times 5 games. With 2 weeks to prepare for the Pistol, AccuScore is expecting to limit Kaepernick’s total rush attempts and rushing yards, although his yards per carry is still a very high 8.1 ypc in simulations.
AccuScore has Super Bowl Prop Bets breakdowns for wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs in the NFL Analysis section
