Super Bowl Prop Bets: Running Backs
Below are many popular Super Bowl Prop lines. In order to make picks we translate the LINE into a LINE% with a total of 100%. We compare it to the AccuScore simulation percentage. Check back on for QB props (scroll to end for WR & TE Props).
Ray Rice
The 49ers defense is allowing just 2.5 ypc in the playoffs. It’s not surprising to see Ray Rice averaging just 3.6 ypc in simulations resulting in value on the under 65.5 rushing yards despite AccuScore having the same betting line in terms of rush attempts when factoring in the -153 on the under 17.5 carries. There is also minimal value on Ray Rice’s receiving stats.
AccuScore is 10-1-1 Against The Spread and on Over/Unders since the Divisional round of the playoffs, so take a look at AccuScore’s Super Bowl Picks
Bernard Pierce
Like the situation with Ray Rice, AccuScore also has the under for Bernard Pierce’s rushing yards. The betting line of 33.5 would indicate a 4.5 ypc for Pierce, but AccuScore only has Pierce at 4.2 ypc. Again, the 49ers are allowing just 2.5 ypc in the playoffs and 3.7 in the regular season. Baltimore is committing to running the ball in order to set up the play action pass even if it means gaining 2 or 3 yards per attempt. The Ravens play-calling combined with the 49ers great run defense should keep both Rice and Pierce under their respective rushing yards.
FRANK GORE
San Francisco averaged 155 rushing yards per game in the regular season and a massive 236 in the playoffs thanks to Kaepernick’s record breaking performance vs Green Bay. Baltimore’s traditionally dominant run defense struggled this season, BUT, every fan has seen Baltimore’s run defense step up considerably in the last few weeks of the regular season and in the playoffs. In simulations, the Ravens are allowing 130 rushing yards (more than they allowed in the regular season), but not nearly as much as the 155 that SF averaged.
The line of 81.5 is not surprising since Gore averaged 76 in the regular season and Baltimore had a sub-par rushing defense this year. The AccuScore simulations accounts for the improved defensive play by the Ravens and AccuScore only gives Gore a 30% chance of going over 81.5. If the Ravens defense is effective it could put the 49ers in a position to pass more than they traditionally do. Kaepernick and LaMichael James are getting more carries which cuts into Gore’s potential carries and rushing yards. This is why we have value on under 19.5 rush attempts and under 81.5 yards. Gore is not used as a receiver the way he once was pre-2011, but AccuScore gives him a high chance of having at least 2 receptions.
LAMICHAEL JAMES
LaMichael James is a valuable backup RB but he only has 8 carries in the 2 playoff games and over 5 carries in 3 of his 6 games overall. AccuScore has a high probability of 5 or under and just a 25% chance of over 5 carries. AccuScore does give James a 67% chance of having at least 1 reception which is value over the -196 Over 0.5 reception line. He has been targeted 7 times, caught 5 balls in his 6 games. AccuScore has the over on receptions for both Frank Gore and LaMichael James. Colin Kaepernick has a big arm and will certainly take plenty of chances downfield, but with ballhawks like Ed Reed in the secondary he may check down to his RBs out of the back field more than normal just to keep the ball moving.
To See Part 1 and Part 2 of Super Bowl Props: Wide Receivers & Tight Ends, Go to NFL Analysis section
