Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @RohitGhosh on Twitter

In the last two-plus decades, the No. 1 seeds have met in the Super Bowl just twice: Indianapolis and New Orleans in 2009, and Buffalo and Dallas in 1993. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks join those other teams in this rare match-up of the two best teams in the NFL. Super Bowl 48 at MetLife Stadium should be one of the most well-balanced and competitive games in recent history as the league’s most potent offense goes up against the league’s most stout defense.

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Fun Fact: Favorites have gone 33-14 straight up and 26-17-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl.
AccuScore has the Broncos as slight 50.2 percent favorites. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 25.8 – 25.7 with the Seahawks covering the +2 spread nearly 52 percent of the time. While Seattle does boast a defense that rarely allows 3+ TDs in a game, let’s not forget the type of offense it will be going up against. There is a 58 percent chance the total combined score goes over 47 points, and just a 38.7 percent chance it stays under that total.

Projected Leaders

Passing: Russell Wilson (SEA) - 257.2 yds, 2 TDs, 101.7 QBR | Peyton Manning (DEN) - 274.9 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 94.1 QBR

Rushing: Marshawn Lynch (SEA) - 64 yds on 21 carries | Knowshon Moreno (DEN) - 42 yds on 12 carries

Receiving: Doug Baldwin (SEA) - 81 yds | Golden Tate (SEA) - 54 yds | Percy Harvin (SEA) - 38 yds | Demaryius Thomas (DEN) - 88 yds | Julius Thomas (DEN) - 68 yds | Eric Decker (DEN) - 51 yds | Wes Welker (DEN) - 25 yds

What to Watch for

Quarterback Peyton Manning and his receivers versus Seattle's secondary - that's what this Super Bowl matchup will come down to. How effective can Manning be against a secondary that has the likes of Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Byron Maxwell and Earl Thomas?

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), for how efficient Manning has been with his throws, his receivers have been just as good at holding on to the ball. Manning's receivers have dropped a total of 43 passes this season. That's 43 drops, third-most in the league, on Manning's league-leading 659 pass attempts. Looking at the math provided by SB Nation's Field Gulls, Denver's receivers have produced better numbers than one would expect them to - allowing Manning to have 15+ pass attempts per drop (QB Tom Brady averaged 11.84 pass attempts per drop; QB Matt Stafford averaged 10.93 pass attempts per drop).

AccuScore simulations project two turnovers for the Broncos, at least one of which is expected to be a Manning interception. Seattle committed fewer turnovers in 70% of simulations and won 62% of simulations when they take care of the ball.

Key Match-up

The effectiveness of running back Knowshon Moreno against the league's seventh-best rush defense will be a key indicator of how the Seattle defense attacks Manning. Bronco coach John Fox mentioned earlier this week that Moreno's ribs, while not one hundred percent, are doing well enough for him to be the team's starting back.

Moreno has 93 first downs on the season to go along with just one turnover. A sub-par game from Moreno will allow Seattle to be exponentially more aggressive in their game plan against Manning.

Prediction

From the chit-chat on Twitter, it seems that all the top bettors are taking Denver on the spread, and doing so confidently. While AccuScore data projects a close game, the bettors are favoring a "big win" for Denver. With all this talk of Seattle's secondary and Denver's offense, I expect Marshawn Lynch to take advantage of the situation by making his mark on the game early on.

The pick: 30-26, Seattle