So, How Good is Cam Newton? So, How Good is Cam Newton? By Bart Lopez For a limited time try AccuScore sports betting system membership Free or get 50% off our annual rate from a year ago...sign up for ALL-ACCESS membership To say Cam Newton has exceeded expectations is the understatement of the year. When the Carolina Panthers drafted the quarterback out of Auburn first in the draft, analysts all over the country questioned the pick. They raised doubts about his accuracy, intelligence, and inexperience in a pro-style offense. Newton has silenced all his critics in only eight games. So far this season, he has accumulated the following stat line: 2,393 passing yards with 11 passing touchdowns and 319 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Even with nine interceptions and two lost fumbles, those numbers are impressive. Newton has played so well through eight weeks that he is no longer judged by rookie quarterback standards, having thrust himself into the upper tier of quarterbacks in the league. As a result, AccuScore took Cam Newton and put him on a variety of playoff caliber teams to see how those teams would fare with Newton in comparison to how they are forecasted to perform with their current quarterback. The following table shows how the other quarterbacks compared to Cam Newton based on their teams forecasted winning percentage. These simulations assumed that each team ran the same offense and plays that they would run with their actual starting quarterback. QB VS CAM NEWTON +/- PER GAME 16 GAME SEASON Aaron Rodgers 10.0% 1.6 Tom Brady 10.0% 1.6 Drew Brees 5.0% 0.8 Eli Manning 3.3% 0.5 Ben Roethlisberger 1.3% 0.2 Matt Schaub 1.3% 0.2 Cam Newton -- -- Alex Smith 0.0% 0.0 Joe Flacco -1.3% -0.2 Ryan Fitzpatrick -2.5% -0.4 Andy Dalton -4.4% -0.7 Philip Rivers -5.6% -0.9 Carson Palmer -7.8% -1.2 Mark Sanchez -7.8% -1.2 The +/- per game calculation refers to the team’s simulation win percentage in their remaining Week 9 to 17 games. The table shows that while Newton still has a ways to go to be considered the best quarterback in football, he is currently playing at such a high level that he has surpassed many seasoned veterans. To get a more in-depth look at each team’s forecast with Newton versus their current starting quarterback, the previous table was broken down to focus on each individual team. The first group is comprised of the teams that are better off with their current quarterback. GREEN BAY PACKERS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Aaron Rodgers 6.5 72.2% 94.5% 99.7% w/ Cam Newton 5.6 62.2% 86.8% 98.4% DIFF -0.9 -10.0% -7.7% -1.3% NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Tom Brady 6.6 73.3% 70.4% 91.9% w/ Cam Newton 5.7 63.3% 49.6% 77.9% DIFF -0.9 -10.0% -20.8% -14.0% NEW ORLEANS SAINTS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Drew Brees 5.3 66.3% 66.1% 83.2% w/ Cam Newton 4.9 61.3% 56.8% 73.8% DIFF -0.4 -5.0% -9.3% -9.4% NEW YORK GIANTS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Eli Manning 4.3 47.8% 43.4% 59.0% w/ Cam Newton 4.0 44.4% 35.2% 50.1% DIFF -0.3 -3.3% -8.2% -8.9% PITTSBURGH STEELERS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Ben Roethlisberger 5.9 73.8% 67.4% 93.5% w/ Cam Newton 5.8 72.5% 65.0% 92.2% DIFF -0.1 -1.3% -2.4% -1.3% HOUSTON TEXANS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Matt Schaub 5.1 63.8% 87.9% 88.8% w/ Cam Newton 5.0 62.5% 85.9% 86.5% DIFF -0.1 -1.3% -2.0% -2.3% At the top of the list it is not surprising to find that the Packers and Patriots are better off with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, respectively. Both teams see a considerable drop in win percentage, win division percentage, and playoff percentage with Newton behind center. If he were to be the starting quarterback for either team for the remainder of the season, one could expect the teams to lose an additional game. This is not a knock on Newton, however, as Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are the two best quarterbacks in football and Super Bowl MVP’s. The next four teams, the Saints, Giants, Steelers, and Texans, see a much smaller drop in their forecasted winning percentages, despite the fact that they each have a pro bowl starting quarterback. Even the Steelers, who have won multiple Super Bowls with Ben Roethlisberger, would lose just over one percent in their forecasting winning percentage with Cam Newton. These teams are only half the story as Newton would improve quite a few playoff contenders. The next group of tables is comprised of the teams that are better off with Newton as the starting quarterback. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Alex Smith 5.4 60.0% 98.9% 99.1% w/ Cam Newton 5.4 60.0% 98.9% 99.2% DIFF 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% BALTIMORE RAVENS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Joe Flacco 5.4 60.0% 25.4% 72.3% w/ Cam Newton 5.5 61.1% 26.2% 72.2% DIFF 0.1 1.1% 0.8% -0.1% BUFFALO BILLS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Ryan Fitzpatrick 4.7 58.8% 21.2% 53.3% w/ Cam Newton 4.9 61.3% 24.1% 58.5% DIFF 0.2 2.5% 2.9% 5.2% CINCINNATI BENGALS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Andy Dalton 4.2 46.7% 7.0% 35.8% w/ Cam Newton 4.6 51.1% 11.2% 46.8% DIFF 0.4 4.4% 4.2% 11.0% SAN DIEGO CHARGERS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Philip Rivers 5.2 57.8% 50.7% 57.6% w/ Cam Newton 5.7 63.3% 61.2% 67.8% DIFF 0.5 5.6% 10.5% 10.2% OAKLAND RAIDERS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Carson Palmer 4.7 52.2% 34.2% 39.0% w/ Cam Newton 5.4 60.0% 51.9% 58.4% DIFF 0.7 7.8% 17.7% 19.4% NEW YORK JETS W (WK9-17) WIN% WIN DIV PLAYOFF w/ Mark Sanchez 4.4 48.9% 8.3% 29.5% w/ Cam Newton 5.1 56.7% 11.3% 36.8% DIFF 0.7 7.8% 3.0% 7.3% The most surprising results from these tables are those of the San Diego Chargers and the New York Jets. Both teams are annual playoff contenders and have successful, franchise quarterbacks. Even though Philip Rivers and Mark Sanchez are both struggling at the moment, it is impressive that a rookie quarterback would increase each of their team’s winning percentages by over five percent. Most of the other teams in this group would also see notable improvement with Newton, including an up and coming Buffalo Bills team that recently signed quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a six-year, 59 million dollar contract. The only team that would not be any better or worse off is the San Francisco 49ers, who are starting a quarterback that is playing the best football of his career in Alex Smith. In eight games, Cam Newton has gone from questionable first overall pick to a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. It is generally agreed that quarterbacks get better with age. With that in mind, it is only a matter of time before Newton works his way up the list and stands among the likes of Rodgers and Brady.
