Written by Aaron Fischman

Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

Steelers vs Broncos: Sunday Night Football Preview

Denver comes out on top in 51 percent of simulations so in other words, not much separates the Broncos and Steelers as they get ready for their Sunday night season opener.

Peyton Manning’s return to the field is easily the top storyline surrounding the game, and for good reason. This offseason the Broncos gave the 36-year-old signal caller a five-year, $96-million contract, and many are eagerly anticipating his first regular season game since Jan. 3, 2011. That was more than 20 months ago! Is he a sizeable injury risk? Will we ever see the Peyton Manning of old? How much better will the Broncos be with Manning under center? These questions cannot fully be answered in one night, but Sunday’s game will begin to shape the narrative.

With all the talk surrounding Manning, one might forget about the opposing quarterback – a man who has reached three Super Bowls (winning two) in the last seven years. According to the AccuScore simulations, Ben Roethlisberger is forecasted to throw for approximately 240 yards against the Broncos with a quarterback rating of nearly 90.

For the AccuScore computer’s expert picks for this game and the Monday Night Football games, go to the AccuScore NFL Expert Picks Page

The forecast shows Manning’s passer rating approaching 100 thanks in part to more than 270 yards through the air. According to the data, receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will combine for more than 56 percent of the yards produced from Manning passes. Although Manning is projected to record 272 passing yards, it should be noted that the Steelers led the league in passing defense last season allowing just 171.9 yards per contest.

Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall is still recovering from a torn ACL, and is listed as doubtful to play. In his place, AccuScore simulations suggest that Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will evenly split carries with Redman narrowly leading the way with close to 50 yards.

Denver, who tied for eighth in the league in sacks last season, is expected to bring down Roethlisberger a game-leading three times.

For what it’s worth, the Steelers went 5-3 away from home last season, while the Broncos won just three of their eight home games. The last time these teams played, the Broncos won in “walk-off” fashion to advance to the AFC Divisional round (and earn the right to get slaughtered by the Patriots), but those were the days of Tim Tebow. A new sheriff is in town.