By Bart Lopez
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With week eight in the books after an exciting Monday night matchup, there are three teams in position to make history. One team, the Green Bay Packers, is on track to go undefeated after seven convincing victories before their week eight bye. The other two teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins, are on pace to finish the season without a single win.
Green Bay has played very well this year, winning by seven or more points in every game except one. Despite appearing to be unbeatable, the Packers’ chances of going undefeated remain slim. AccuScore ran simulations for their remaining games and found that the Packers have a 5.3 percent chance of going 16-0, mainly due to Green Bay’s strength of schedule picking up considerably in the second half of the season. In their first seven games, the Packers played three teams with winning records. In their next nine games, the Packers will play eight games against teams with records currently over .500, including two against the Detroit Lions. Green Bay has gotten by on a superb offense led by Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers, but it must get more help from the second worse passing defense in the league if it’s going to go undefeated.
The Indianapolis Colts are in the exact opposite situation as the Green Bay Packers. The Colts are winless in their first eight games and are ranked in the bottom third in the league on both offense and defense. After another big loss in week eight, Indianapolis has a zero percent chance of winning the division or making the playoffs. Unfortunately for Colts fans, the team has a better chance of losing every game this season with a 2.2 percent winless probability. That percentage is still fairly low thanks to upcoming games against two of the worst teams in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers.
The Miami Dolphins, at 0-8, are the league’s other winless team. Unlike the Colts, the Dolphins haven’t lost many games by large margins; instead, they have struggled to close out games. Like Indianapolis, Miami has a zero percent chance of winning the division or making the playoffs. Miami, however, is first place in the race for Andrew Luck with a 4.1 percent winless probability. The Dolphins have a tough remaining schedule, facing only three teams with losing records. To make matters worse, two of those three losing teams are the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Thanks to the high level of parity in the NFL, the chances one of these teams goes undefeated or winless are quite low. However, if the season continues to play out with the Packers blowing out teams, the Colts getting blown out, and the Dolphins crumbling down the stretch, one of these teams could go down in the record books, for better or for worse.