Written by Jon Lee

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NFL Week 4: Top 3 Value Picks

Last weekend, Miami missed field goals which would have given the Dolphins and our expert a much needed win. Instead, he finished 1-1 on the weekend, and now, his record is a respectable 2-2-2 on the season. Since the real refs are back, maybe he’ll stop getting screwed over in close games. This week, he’s got 3 new picks for Week 4, and two that are members only.

Free Pick:

1. Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

The Cardinals are one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the league along with the Texans and Falcons. While I’m not quite buying into the offense, I believe in the talent on the defense particularly Patrick Peterson and the defensive line. I’ve never been a fan of Ryan Tannehill dating back to his college days, and thought it was a huge mistake drafting him so early. Now the Dolphins are compounding that mistake by starting him over mediocre but experienced and steady Matt Moore. Tannehill was brutal in the opener against the Texans on the road throwing three interceptions. With Reggie Bush nursing injuries, Miami has no true playmakers to help out Tannehill. Arizona’s defense should have a field day against Tannehill. I’m not sure how the Dolphins get past 10 points unless there is a defensive or special teams score. If Tannehill completes under 50 percent of his passes, Arizona wins 65 percent of the time. Tannehill pass completion rate so far is 52.9 percent.

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2. San Francisco 49ers -4 at New York Jets The AccuScore sim likes this one to stay close with the Niners winning by just 1.7 points on average. The computer has the Jets covering 56 percent of the time as well. I’m going to go the other way. I think San Francisco will be motivated coming off a loss to Minnesota last week. The defense did not play particularly well, and should be able to really key in on and shut down New York’s running game. I have always been underwhelmed by Shonn Greene, and the computer is too projecting him to run for just 3.2 yards per carry. Without a running game I expect San Francisco to be able to tee off on Mark Sanchez and force him into hurried throws and poor decisions. In the end I believe San Francisco’s defense gives the Niners the edge, and I predict a six point road win.

3. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots OVER 51 Points
Here’s one game where I will go straight with the computer. This 4-star pick happens in 56 percent of simulations with the sim line being set at 54 points. The computer is a combined 4-1 this season picking totals in games involving either New England or Buffalo.