Written by Colin Kennedy

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Week 13: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

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Coming off one of their worst regular season losses in recent memory, the Packers look to get on track at home against the rival Vikings. Fresh off getting trounced 38-10 at the hands of the Giants, Green Bay is in a standard trap game while looking for their eight win. Green Bay can’t afford to lose if it wants to remain in contention for a home game in the playoffs. Although Minnesota enters Sunday as a severe underdog (+9.5), Minnesota is one of the bigger surprises in the NFL given their competitive 6-5 record. There are lots of playoff implications in this game, and it should not disappoint fans.

The Packers are heavy favorites, and win 80 percent of AccuScore simulations. They also have a 60 percent probability of covering the spread. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is forecasted for 300 yards passing with three touchdowns to his receiving corps. The simulations show a tale of two Christian Ponders; the Minnesota quarterback almost always had a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio in wins but threw twice as many interceptions than scores in losses. Minnesota star running back Adrian Peterson surpassed 125 yards rushing in wins, but just 80 yards in losses. A positive turnover helped the Packers to victory in simulations 90 percent of time.

Even with a poor performance last week against New York, Rodgers remains the league leader in passer rating. His mark of 105.6 remains above his historic 104.4 career average, and he’s having this year without a stable or effective offensive lines. Green Bay has been hampered by injuries, and it is most apparent on the line as their back-ups are undrafted rookies.

Even though Vikings corner Antoine Winfield is in line for another Pro Bowl appearance, the Packer regained another weapon with the expected return of Greg Jennings. With one of the team leaders returning, Green Bay has one of the league’s most talented receiver trios in Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. This group projects to record over 150 yards combined, but I see them pushing closer to 200. Who knows, maybe tight end Jermichael Finley can get on track or James Jones could surprise given his strong performance so far this season.

For all their offensive success, the Packers have yet to establish a run game this season. I don’t see the Packers (especially without Cedric Benson, who recently opted for surgery) running over the NFC with the likes of Alex Green and James Starks in the backfield. Neither Green nor Starks gained over 25 rushing yards in simulations. Expect the league-average Vikings defense to shine against the run and improve on their season averages.

There is no secret to the Viking’s offense; the “ground-and-pound” mentality with Peterson continues to be successful. Peterson leads the league in rushing, and figures to have another nice game with a projected 90 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown. Against most teams, I would expect Peterson to have a bigger game, but the Vikings will be behind early and be forced to throw early and more frequently.

The Packers have one of the worst performing secondaries in the league, but Ponder has been prone to turnovers and mistakes in his young career. With just a 13-9 TD-to-INT ratio, he has a lot room to improve. The simulations were not kind of the FSU alum as he underperformed, and had 220 yards and 1 touchdown to 1.3 interceptions on average. As stated, if the Vikings want any chance of succeeding, their quarterback will have to play above his typical level. The Packers’ defense averaged two turnovers in simulations, but at Lambeau Field it could be worse for Minnesota.

If Rodgers and company are clicking early, things could get ugly fast. Simulations predict a 31-20 Green Bay victory, and I don’t see many scenarios in which Minnesota can improve their chances. Defensive end Jared Allen may be a beast, but he doesn’t play all 11 defensive positions for the Vikings. Once the dusts settle, I see the Packers winning 33-17 and maintaining their edge in the NFC wildcard race.