Written by Colin Kennedy

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Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots

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Most know this rivalry due to the history between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but the subtraction of Manning and the addition of Andrew Luck have reignited this scenario. While last year’s game was settled by just a touchdown, I expect the Patriots’ offense to once again come up strong and land a devastating blow on the upstart Colts. The projections show a 33 to 21 beatdown by the home team, but I think the Pats should better that predicted outcome.

The Patriots win 81 percent of simulations against Indy producing elite stats in both the passing and running game. The simulations show a near 60 percent chance of New England covering the -9.5 point spread. The same simulations show that it would be wise to take the under on the combined score, as there was a 52.3% chance that both teams together would be unable to surpass 54.5 total points. The Patriots win the game outright in 80.7 percent of simulations. Simply put, I strongly recommend betting for New England, all of the data points in their direction.

Many analysts thought the young Colts would struggle to win games much less reach.500. Now past the midpoint of the season however, the Colts are in prime position to make the playoffs as a wild card. Indianapolis has won its last four games, which coincidentally have been the turning point in Luck’s season. Luck has accounted for seven total touchdowns in those four victories while leading lengthy, time-consuming drives. With the exception of last Thursday’s victory at Jacksonville, the Colts have won close games including one in overtime. The arrow is definitely pointing up for this Stanford grad, and the simulations suggest that he will pass for 315 yards, 1.5 passing touchdown, 1 interception and another 20 yards rushing against the porous New England pass defense. During the games which simulated Indy victories, Luck upped his totals in every category including raising his touchdown passes average to over two.

There hasn’t been one individual player who has benefited more from the arrival of Luck than wide receiver Reggie Wayne. Wayne ranks first in the NFL in receptions (69) and has accumulated over 900 yards already, comparable stats to those when he played with Manning. While he hasn’t found the end zone as often as fantasy owners would like (just three touchdowns so far), Wayne is forecasted for an outstanding game with almost 100 yards receiving on seven receptions while scoring half of the time. Outside of Wayne, the Colts have experience a merry-go-round of options for Luck to pass to. The simulations projected three other options (Donnie Avery, TY Hilton, and Coby Fleener) to combine for almost 150 yards and a score.

Unfortunately for the Colts, they have one major flaw this season offensively: the run game. Plagued by injuries and inconsistency, Indianapolis has yet to identify a lead back to sustain a constant threat. Their two primary backs, Donald Brown and Vic Ballard, have combined for less than 800 yards on the season with just one touchdown. Neither possesses game changing qualities. Simulations gave Brown just 37 yards on 10 carries with the rookie Ballard rushing for just 24 yards on 8 attempts.

Luckily for the Colts, the weakness of the Patriots team lies in their pass defense. The Pats rank 29 in the league allowing over 285 yards a game and a 97.3 quarterback rating to opposing signal callers. Minutes before the trading deadline, the team traded for former Buccaneers 1st round pick Aqib Talib who is expected to play this weekend. Fantasy owners and Colts fans hope that Luck can improve on the 337 yards and 2 touchdowns thrown by Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick last week.

Colts general manager Ryan Grigson has rebuilt this Colts team from the ground up, and his defensive unit will have a dangerous test against Brady and New England. Under Bill Belichick, the Pats have the league’s number one unit in total yards (5th in running, 7th in passing). Brady has already passed for more than 2600 yards and again has a terrific touchdown to interception ratio of 18:3. The simulations project Brady to pass for a reasonable 285 yards and add 2.3 touchdowns with just a 50 percent chance of an interception.

Brady has done a great job of spreading the wealth this season, as receiver Wes Welker and tight end Rob Gronkowski continue to post their usual numbers. Tight end Aaron Hernandez has been hurt for the majority of this season, but the injury report lists him as questionable and likely to play this week. While many expected huge numbers from Brandon Lloyd from the outset of the season, he hasn’t produced like many fantasy owners had hoped, but he still has recorded 42 receptions and could end up with 1,000 yards receiving if he improves on his catch rate (75 targets, 2nd on the team). The projections show Gronk having his usual 60+ receiving yards and a score, while Welker and Lloyd both finish with around 60 yards receiving. Given Welker’s post Week 1 resurgence (just 14 yards) and also the Colts’ liability in pass coverage from their OLBs (former defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis), I imagine him having a much stronger output, perhaps reaching double digit receptions and clearing 100 yards receiving.

The Patriots run game has been a pleasant surprise. Stevan Ridley has quietly become one of the better backs in the league. He is currently fifth in the league in rushing at 814 yards, and has averaged over 90 yards a game. This consistency has been lacking in the Patriot offense as they became too reliant on the pass in recent seasons. Ridley’s emergence has forced teams to play fewer nickel and dime formations, thus allowing bigger throwing lanes for Brady and his receivers to get open. The Colts rank in the bottom third of the league in yards rushing, Ridley should be able to reach his projected figures of 100 yards on the ground and almost one touchdown.

While the Colts have shown heart (through the absence of head coach Chuck Pagano) and improvement, I question whether they will be able to stay in this game. Even if they lose, they will still be in playoff contention and perhaps a bad loss on the road to a perennial AFC power would do them good. I like this Colts team for the future, but this game will played this week.

Prediction: Patriots 38 Colts 21