Written by Rohit Ghosh
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We're always excited when AccuScore sim data picks a different favorite when compared to the odds listed in Vegas. Lucky for us, we get multiple such games as the NFL kicks off the regular season.
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos: Thursday Night Football
Thursday night's matchup gives us a rematch of last season's Super Bowl in Week 1. Peyton Manning wasn't doing a whole lot last season, so the Denver Broncos should be fine with the rookie QB- right?
At the time of publication, Vegas has the Panthers as one-point favorites. On the money line, Carolina's listed at -175, with Denver getting +155. The odds indicate Vegas gives the home side about a 39 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore simulations, however, have a MUCH different take - picking Denver to not only cover, but win this matchup.
The Broncos win nearly 52 percent of simulations, making the +155 ML odds very attractive.
Everyone's expecting the Panthers to capitalize on Siemian's inexperience. Carolina comes in with a full squad, adding WR Kelvin Benjamin to the mix. Even with a rookie QB, Denver's ground attack should keep things in check.
C.J. Anderson plays a big role in the simulations, averaging nearly 90 rushing yards. According to the data after 10,000+ simulations, if he has greater than 87 yards and at least 1 rushing TD - which there's a 43 percent chance of - Denver's winning probability jumps up to 74 percent.
The marquee matchup will have all eyes on it and C.J. will be looking to prove he's worth the offseason contract that made him one of the highest players at the position. The Broncos have made it clear in the offseason and training they're dedicated to improving their running game - Thursday night's matchup with Carolina will be quite the test in Week 1.
Simulated Box Score
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