Written by Aaron Fischman
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Sunday Night Football: Green Bay vs Houston

Last week’s Sunday night game saw a talented quarterback lead his team to its first victory. This Sunday night, the reigning MVP will be given a prime opportunity to bring his struggling team a much-needed win while simultaneously handing his opponent its inaugural defeat.

As if you didn’t know, it’s Aaron Rodgers and the 2-3 Packers against the undefeated Texans. According to more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations, the Texans boast a 53.0 percent chance of winning the game.

The Texans, who enjoy an AFC-leading +15.2 point per game differential, have won three of their games by 20 or more. Houston ranks sixth in the league in rushing as running back Arian Foster trails only Jamaal Charles for most rushing yards. Foster’s 4.0 yards per rush average leaves much to be desired, but he’s easily been given the largest workload in the league at 26.4 carries per game.

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Through five games, the Texans appear to be one of the best defenses in the league. The Houston D has allowed 14.6 points and 275.6 passing yards per game ranking fourth and third in the NFL respectively. The secondary has done its part as well holding opponents to just 190.2 passing yards per game. Only the Cowboys and 49ers have limited offenses to fewer yards through the air. The Texans have held opponents to a league-low 25.8 percent third-down conversion rate. During Monday’s victory over the Jets however, Houston lost its leading tackler, Brian Cushing. The standout linebacker will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

The Packers also lost a key player to injury last week when running back Cedric Benson sprained his left foot against Indianapolis. Benson was promptly place on injured reserve and won’t be eligible to return until at least Week 14. While Benson was averaging fewer than 60 rushing yards per game through Green Bay’s first four games, he was given 17 or more carries on three occasions. His absence leaves Alex Green and James Starks responsible for shouldering the rushing load.

Houston’s Andre Johnson caught one pass against the Jets and has not hauled in more than three passes in any game since Week 1. The five-time Pro-Bowl receiver hopes to bounce back against a Green Bay secondary that allowed Reggie Wayne to amass 212 receiving yards on 13 catches last Sunday.

The AccuScore forecast projects 147 total yards for Foster including nearly 112 on the ground. For the Packers, Rodgers is expected to pass for approximately 290 yards, exactly 100 more passing yards than the Texan defense has allowed per game on average. After starting slowly through the first three games, Rodgers has thrown for seven touchdowns over the past two weeks. Finally, the forecast estimates 4.3 sacks for Houston. Rodgers has been sacked five or more times on three occasions this season.

It will be 26-25, Houston, according to AccuScore. My independent projection is 31-24, Texans, but the Packers stand a real chance at winning this one if they can find a way to exploit the absence of Cushing.