by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

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AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

One of today’s most exciting intra-divisional rivalries will be renewed Sunday night as the Steelers host the Ravens. Eight of the last nine regular-season meetings between these two have been decided by a touchdown or less. Over that span, Baltimore won five times, Pittsburgh the remaining four.

Pittsburgh enters the game with a pristine 4-0 home record. Since 2007, the Steelers have won 35 of 44 regular-season home games (more than 80 percent). It’s a little different, however, when the Ravens come to town. Baltimore has stolen its last two regular-season games at Heinz Field.

Last Monday night, the Steelers came away with a 16-13 victory over the Chiefs in a game that didn’t feature much offense. Despite getting a win, it was not all good news for Pittsburgh as it lost its starting quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, after he sprained his right shoulder and dislocated a rib on a vicious hit. Roethlisberger, who ranks in the top seven quarterbacks in passer rating and completion percentage, will be sorely missed Sunday and for the foreseeable future. Through nine games, only Tom Brady and Robert Griffin III threw fewer interceptions than Big Ben.

In the Steelers’ favor, however, is their defense. This defense has held opponents to 290 or fewer yards in four straight games. In two of those games, opposing offenses didn’t even gain 186 total yards. Seriously. While Pittsburgh’s rushing defense ranks among the best in the league, its secondary is easily the best for the second year in a row.

Two weeks ago, Eli Manning completed just 42 percent of his passes against the Steelers for 125 yards. The week before that, RG III was held to 185 total yards. Immediately prior to the Steelers’ containment of Griffin, they absolutely shut down second-year quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton, who has passed for more than 220 yards in seven of nine games this season, was held to 105 passing yards.

Baltimore’s defense is not in such good shape. Although the Ravens’ scoring defense ranks in the middle of the pack, they give up the sixth-most yards in the league. In Baltimore’s Week 5 win over the Cowboys, it lost middle linebacker Ray Lewis and cornerback Lardarius Webb. The team has been feeling their absence ever since. The defense has surrendered 420 or more yards in three of its last four games.

Ravens running back Ray Rice finished second in rushing yards last year (1,364), but has only topped the 100-yard rushing mark twice this season. He’s only been given more than 20 carries on just one occasion, and that was Week 9 against the Browns. The Steelers’ shuffling at running back will continue as Rashard Mendenhall appears likely to start on Sunday. Last week, Jonathan Dwyer started, while Isaac Redman got the nod the week before.

More than 10,000 AccuScore simulations project the Ravens winning 51.4 percent of the time. Each team’s score hovers around the 18-18.5 range. If Roethlisberger was going to play, I would expect a Steeler victory, but Byron Leftwich hasn’t started and won a game since 2006. Despite the strong play of the Pittsburgh defense, I’m predicting a 20-17 Baltimore win.