Written by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

If you would like to see AccuScore’s Picks on this game against the spread and on Totals, visit AccuScore's NFL Picks Page.

Sunday Night Football: Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

When Cincinnati hosts the Steelers, it will mark the second intra-divisional Sunday night match-up of the season. In the first, the Eagles hung on to beat the rival Giants after Lawrence Tynes failed to convert a 54-yard field goal in the waning seconds.

Since Marvin Lewis took over as Bengals head coach in 2003, the Steelers have dominated head-to-head play. Over that span, the Steelers have won 14 of 19 regular-season meetings. Even more troubling for Cincinnati, nine of the 14 Pittsburgh wins came by double-digits.

It’s a new day, however, as the Bengals boast a young offense led by the likes of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. In spite of the Steelers’ season sweep of the Bengals last year, Cincinnati lost at Paul Brown Stadium by a single touchdown.

Each team is coming off a loss from Week 6. In Tennessee, the Steelers uncharacteristically surrendered 359 total yards including 265 through the air. The running game never got going, a problem that has persisted all season. Pittsburgh ranks second-to-last in rushing yards per game (74.8). Both Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman have been ruled out for Sunday so Jonathan Dwyer is expected to get the bulk of the carries with a little Baron Batch mixed in as well.

Meanwhile Cincinnati fell to Cleveland 34-24, a game in which the losing Bengals outgained their opponent by more than 100 yards. The Bengals committed four costly turnovers including a fourth-quarter interception that was returned for a Browns touchdown.

Through six games, Dalton has clearly played a bigger role in Cincinnati’s offensive game plan compared to a season ago. He is attempting an average of 35.8 passes per game, up from 32.3 last year. More importantly, he is completing 66 percent of those passes, up from 58.1 percent. He is leading his team to more touchdowns as well. The only problem is that the second-year quarterback is on pace to throw 24 interceptions. He has thrown five interceptions in his last two games.

Dalton’s favorite target, fellow second-year player A.J. Green, is turning in a monster year averaging nearly 105 receiving yards per game. Fittingly, the AccuScore forecast expects Green to lead all players with approximately 88 receiving yards in the game. For the Steelers, receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are estimated to notch a combined 141 yards.

For whatever reason (the Steelers’ 2-3 record certainly doesn’t help), Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t gotten the credit he’s deserved. With Mendenhall starting the year on the sidelines, Roethlisberger was expected to contribute more than he had in years. So far Big Ben hasn’t let his team down throwing for nearly 300 yards per game while largely avoiding interceptions. Remarkably Roethlisberger has thrown only two picks through his first five games. AccuScore forecasts another 277 yards for the veteran on Sunday night.

On defense the Steelers will be missing five-time All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu as he continues to recovery from a calf injury. Linebackers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley are expected to play.

After more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations, the Steelers won the match-up 50.3 percent of the time with the Steelers and Bengals averaging scores of 20.8 and 20.7 respectively. In other words, AccuScore is calling this game a toss-up. My independent prediction is 27-24, Steelers.