Written by Aaron Fischman
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Sunday Night Football: New England vs Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens host the New England Patriots on Sunday night in yet another intriguing Sunday night matchup. The Ravens have a 62.7 percent chance of winning according to the AccuScore forecast.

See all of AccuScore’s picks against the spread, on the moneyline and Totals for this & every other game on the NFL Expert Picks page

Since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008, the Raven defense has ranked among the top three in fewest points allowed each year. They have made the playoffs every year since then.

Last season, the Patriots earned a Super Bowl berth despite a defense that finished second-to-last in yards allowed and in the middle-of-the-pack in scoring defense. They were able to overcome that deficiency because of an offense that recorded the third-most points in the league and second-most total yards.

The sample size is small this early in the season, but the Patriot offense hasn’t been nearly as productive as in 2011. While Stevan Ridley appears ready to be the primary back that did not exist last year, the passing game is clearly not what it once was. Third-year tight end Aaron Hernandez, a crucial part of the New England attack, is expected to miss at least a few weeks with an injured right ankle. Wes Welker, who averaged 7.6 catches and 98.0 yards per game last season, is currently averaging just 4.0 catches and 54.5 yards. Tom Brady has only thrown three touchdowns putting him on pace for 24. That would match his lowest touchdown total since 2006-07. Even Brandon Lloyd, who was brought in to be a deep threat, hasn’t yet stretched the field with only one reception longer than 20 yards.

As usual, Baltimore’s defense is good, but the offense may be ready to take the next step towards being a quality unit. In the Monday night opener Baltimore blew out the Bengals behind the traditionally strong defense and a terrific performance from quarterback Joe Flacco. Running back Ray Rice also played well despite being given only 10 carries. Granted, that performance came against a weak Bengal defense whereas Baltimore’s offense wasn’t nearly as explosive the following week against Philadelphia. Still, Rice is the best pass-catching running back in the league, and he is also an effective runner. Tight end Dennis Pitta may be emerging as Flacco’s favorite target in the passing game as well.

Brady and Flacco are forecasted to throw for 290.7 and 285.7 yards respectively. According to the projections Rice has a 20-yard advantage on Ridley (73.2-53.2) not to mention the 38.9 additional receiving yards projected for the Rutgers alum. By far the most likely receiver to catch a touchdown is Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski with a projection of 0.8.

The defenses are projected to have very similar stats, but New England has the edge in sacks with 2.4. The final score is projected to be approximately 27.5-23.5 in favor of the Ravens. In each of these teams’ last two meetings, including the 2012 AFC Championship game and a 2010 regular-season contest, the Patriots won 23-20.

In that AFC Championship game, Flacco easily outperformed Brady who threw for two interceptions and no touchdowns. If Raven kicker Billy Cundiff had not missed a late 32-yard field goal, the game would have gone to overtime. The 2010 meeting actually did go to overtime. That is how evenly matched these teams are.