by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter
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Super Bowl Champs: Giants vs Packers
The Giants and Packers last met in the NFC Divisional playoffs last season. Despite being heavily favored, the 15-1 Packers (then the defending champions) committed four turnovers and were eliminated with a 37-20 loss. The Giant used that win as a springboard to go on and win the Super Bowl.
The Packers head into this Sunday night match-up with five consecutive wins by an average margin of 11.0 points per game. The Giants come in having dropped their last two games before a Week 11 bye.
Over the last four years, Eli Manning’s Giants have won all four of their games immediately following a bye week. In those games, Manning has gone 96-141 (68.1 percent) for 1,290 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception. Those are averages of 322.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game.
Manning’s more recent history, however, has not been nearly as good. After a hot personal start through New York’s first five games, Manning has struggled. In his five most recent starts, he has thrown a total of two touchdowns and six interceptions. Over that stretch he has failed to reach 216 passing yards four times.
In the absence of Greg Jennings, who has missed most of the season with an abdominal tear, receivers Randall Cobb and James Jones have stepped up for the Packers. Over Cobb’s last six games, the second-year wideout has caught 36 passes for seven touchdowns and an average of 68.7 yards per game. For his part, Jones has already caught four more passes and one more touchdown than he did all of last season.
The Packers heavily rely on the pass as none of their running backs average more than 3.5 yards per carry. Fittingly, AccuScore simulations project halfbacks James Starks and Alex Green to combine for no more than 41 rushing yards on 17 carries. Aaron Rodgers is expected to carry the offensive load, passing for approximately 291 yards and 2.6 touchdowns.
For the much more balanced Giants, backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown are projected to combine for more than 100 rushing yards, with Manning contributing 274.5 through the air. Victor Cruz, who averaged 96.0 receiving yards per game last season, has failed to reach 60 yards in six of 10 games this season. In two of his last three games, he has been held to fewer than 30 yards. Despite Cruz’s struggles, AccuScore projects 73.8 receiving yards for him against the Packers’ secondary. Fellow receiver Hakeem Nicks has also not been his best this season, but he did make nine catches for 75 yards in New York’s Week 10 loss to the Bengals. Nicks is projected for nearly 75 yards against Green Bay, as well.
Compared to last season, the Packer defense has improved in the sack department, while the Giants have regressed. Last season, New York tied for third in the NFL with 48 sacks. The Packers ranked near the bottom of the league with 29 sacks. This season, however, the Packers and Giants have flipped positions and are on pace for 53 and 40 respectively. Even so, the Giants are projected to bring down Rodgers four times on Sunday night. This season, the Green Bay offensive line has not done a good job of protecting its quarterback. Rodgers has been sacked 32 times or more than three times per game. By contrast, New York has only allowed Manning to be sacked 13 times.
More than 10,000 AccuScore simulations found the Packers victorious 53.7 percent of the time with the average score approximately 27-26. Personally, I’m going with a slightly lower scoring 24-20 Green Bay victory. If the Giants are able to come away with the win, they will extend their divisional lead over the Redskins and Cowboys to two games. If New York loses, it enters a Week 13 matchup at Washington, in which the Redskins can catch the Giants’ divisional lead with a victory. The Packers are currently tied with the Bears (both 7-3) for the NFC North lead, but the Packers currently hold the tiebreaker after beating Chicago in Week 2.
