by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

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NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

This season has not gone the way either the Eagles or Cowboys had hoped.

After beginning the season 3-1, the Eagles have dropped seven consecutive games and appear destined for their first losing season since 2005. If that weren’t enough, they have lost their starting quarterback, Michael Vick, and running back, LaSean McCoy, to concussions.

Although the Cowboys stand at 5-6, a record far below preseason expectations, they are within one game of the NFC’s second Wild Card spot. Since young starting running back DeMarco Murray went down with a sprained foot in the third quarter of a Week 6 game against the Ravens, Dallas has dropped four of seven games. Dallas, however, has weathered the storm just long enough to see the return of its prized running back.

Murray’s return is a welcome sight for an offense that had to endure the struggles of back-up Felix Jones. In six starts in the absence of Murray, Jones averaged 38.3 rushing yards on just 3.2 yards per carry.

While Tony Romo’s 305.2 passing yards per game rank third in the league, he would also rank worst in interceptions (15) if Drew Brees hadn’t thrown five picks on Thursday night. Even so, nine of those 15 interceptions came in two games (against the Bears and Giants) and Romo has avoided throwing one in three of his last four starts.

In these teams’ first meeting three weeks ago, they were deadlocked at 17 points apiece through three quarters until electrifying special teams and defensive plays won it for the Cowboys in the fourth. Alternatively, turnovers cost the Eagles the game. After Dallas’ Dwayne Harris returned a punt for a 78-yard touchdown, the Cowboys scored two more touchdowns, both as a result of Nick Foles turnovers. Foles, who came in for an injured Michael Vick and has been starting ever since, threw a touchdown and completed nearly 69 percent of his passes, but the two turnovers killed his team’s chances to win.

The Cowboys have lost five of the six games in which they lost the turnover battle. When they’ve won the turnover battle or been even with their opponent, they are 4-1. More than 10,000 AccuScore simulations yielded a Dallas victory 79.3 percent of the time. Fittingly, the projections expect Dallas to either win or remain even in the turnover department.

Eagle rookie Bryce Brown ran for 178 yards and two touchdowns in his first start last week against the Panthers. Monday Night Football, what a perfect time for a rookie to strut his stuff! The 21-year-old running back is projected to log 72 rushing yards against a Dallas defense that has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in five of its last six games. For Dallas, projections have Murray and Jones splitting carries, with each gaining approximately 48 rushing yards.

Romo is projected to pass for more than 271 yards and approximately two touchdowns. His favorite targets on Sunday night are estimated to be tight end Jason Witten and third-year receiver Dez Bryant, with each amassing yardage in the low 70s. Both Witten and Bryant are on pace to record more than 1,000 yards this season, while Witten is also on schedule to top 100 catches for the first time in his 10-year career.

AccuScore’s projections average a 29.5-17.5 victory for the home Cowboys. I’m going with a 31-20 win for Dallas. Murray’s return will diversify the Dallas offense. In a losing effort, I think Brown will top 100 yards. In the end, however, Philadelphia will not be able to keep up with the explosive Dallas offense. If AccuScore and I are correct, Philadelphia will experience only its third losing season since 1999. Not a bad run, but such a disaster of a season could spell the end for head coach Andy Reid. Stay tuned.