by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

To see the AccuScore Super Computer’s Picks against the spread and on Totals, visit the NFL Expert Picks Page.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas vs Atlanta

Two Sunday nights ago, the Packers went into Houston and handed the Texans their first loss of the season. Similarly, the Dallas Cowboys are hoping to steal a game in the Georgia Dome, where the Atlanta Falcons have not lost since Nov. 13, 2011.

The Falcons remain the only undefeated team in the league with a pristine record of 7-0. Last week, Atlanta was a trendy pick to fall to the Eagles on the road. Philadelphia was coming off a bye week, a scenario in which Eagles head coach Andy Reid had been a perfect 13-0. The Falcons dominated from the outset however, holding the Eagles to 270 total yards.

Dallas is coming off a tough loss to divisional rival New York, a game in which it fought back from a 23-0 deficit only to lose 29-24. The Cowboys literally lost by about an inch when Dez Bryant’s game-winning touchdown was overturned because his fingertips somehow landed out of bounds first. The Cowboys made an impressive comeback attempt, but their six turnovers once again put them in a hole from which they could not escape. This was the fifth time in seven games that the Cowboys lost the turnover battle.

Last week, Tony Romo threw for 437 yards, but he had attempted 62 passes as a result of playing from behind and an ineffective running game. DeMarco Murray has once again been ruled out for Sunday. While Felix Jones is expected to play, he will be nursing a shoulder and knee injury. Jones, who struggled mightily against the Giants, will likely split carries with second-year halfback Phillip Tanner.

AccuScore projects at least two touchdowns and 297 yards for each quarterback. The Cowboys however, are expected to turn the ball over more than twice whereas the Falcons’ turnover projection is 1.4. Not a single running back from either team is projected to top 50 yards, but AccuScore simulations project big games from the wide receivers and tight ends. Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Bryant, Roddy White and Julio Jones are expected to go for more than 73 yards. Austin and White lead their respective teams with projections of about 90 receiving yards, and 0.8 and 0.6 touchdowns respectively.

The Falcons generally play close games as so do the Cowboys. With that said, Dallas’ running game is not in a good state to say the least, Matt Ryan is historically best at home and the turnover margin significantly favors Atlanta. The Cowboys rank 31st in the NFL with a turnover margin of -11; the Falcons place fourth at +10. After four turnovers last week, Romo will make an effort to be extra careful, but it won’t matter. Atlanta is going to win this game, 30-23, if you ask me. According to more than 10,000 AccuScore simulations, the Falcons will be the victors by a score of 28-24.