Written by Aaron Fischman
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Sunday Night Football: Denver vs New Orleans

At some point in four of the last five games, Denver has fallen behind by 20 or more points. The Broncos are not getting along too well with the beginning of games. In the first half, they’ve been outscored by an average of more than 9 points per game. It’s truly nutty.

Against the Falcons on a Monday night, Denver was down 20-0. It scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns, but fell short of a comeback, 27-21. The following week, the big, bad Texans took a 31-11 lead into the fourth quarter. Yet again, Denver recorded two fourth-quarter touchdowns only to lose, 31-25. In Week 5, New England led Denver 31-7 late in the third quarter, but the pesky Broncos kept fighting. They scored two unanswered touchdowns and looked wantonly at a final scoreboard that read Patriots 31, Broncos 21.

If you would like to see AccuScore’s Picks on this game against the spread and on Totals, visit AccuScore's NFL Picks Page

It’s a predictable formula. The Broncos fall far behind before launching their counterattack. Oftentimes, it’s a case of too little, too late. Against the Chargers last Monday, it was not, as Philip Rivers and the Charger defense came undone in the second half. To the Broncos’ credit, Peyton Manning played spectacularly, the receivers were wonderful and the defense created pressure and turnovers.

Long story short, Denver possesses phenomenal comeback ability with Manning under center, but is this pattern of falling far behind a sustainable one? Have John Fox and the Broncos figured out the problem during the bye week? I guess we’ll see Sunday night won’t we?

New Orleans is coming off a narrow win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman had his way with the Saint secondary to the tune of 420 yards and three touchdowns. In fact, if Vincent Jackson wasn’t shoved out of bounds and subsequently deemed an ineligible receiver, Freeman would have tied the game and forced overtime (*the officials probably made the right call, but the rule should be changed, so as not to incentivize the “shove-out”). New Orleans came dangerously closing to allowing 430 yards and four touchdowns, and that’s assuming Freeman wouldn’t amass any more stats in overtime.

I’d like to take a break from bashing New Orleans’ secondary and say that the run defense is just as terrible. The Broncos don’t run the ball very often, but that probably has to do with the fact that they are always playing from behind.

Finally, a positive for the Saints: Drew Brees plays quarterback for them. He’s passed for 370 yards or more in three consecutive games. If Brees’ right shoulder doesn’t fall off from carrying his entire team, he should eclipse 300 yards for the sixth time in seven games. Specifically, AccuScore projections have Brees around 335 yards while Manning is expected to throw for nearly 300 yards. Not too shabby for a 36-year-old who missed all of last season with a neck injury.

Brees has many reliable targets at his disposal. All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham, however, was severely limited in Thursday’s practice due to a sprained ankle that kept him out of the win over Tampa Bay. He’s listed as questionable, and his playing status could go either way. The injury could hurt the Saints considering Graham is one of Brees’ favorite red-zone targets along with Marques Colston (projected for 79 yards).

AccuScore’s forecast gives Graham the best chance of catching a touchdown with a projection of 0.7. For Denver, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker lead the receiving projections with 80.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns, respectively.

More than 10,000 simulations yield a 56.4 percent chance of the Broncos securing the home victory. The projected score is 29-27, but the biggest statistical difference in AccuScore’s forecast comes down to the running game. Willis McGahee is expected to contribute nearly 90 yards whereas neither Pierre Thomas nor Mark Ingram is projected to exceed 30.

My independent projection is as follows: The Broncos will win 34-27 with McGahee rushing for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Denver will finally not allow its opponent to jump out to a commanding early lead for a change. Brees will throw for three touchdowns in a losing effort as the Saints fall to 2-5.