NFL Season 2020/2021 Predictions

We went ahead and simulated the entire NFL season, all the way until we had a projected Super Bowl champ. Might as well just give out the awards, now?

Let’s take a look at the win totals, team-by-team, to find the 3 best value picks.

NFL Team Win Totals - Top 3 Value Picks

1. The OVER on Jacksonville
   1. They need to get to 5 wins for this bet to be a winner. Let’s not get it twisted – the Jaguars are not a good team. They have a very low chance to make the playoffs, and will more than likely be atop the draft board during the offseason. With that in mind, let’s not forget they did manage a 6-10 record last season. Sure they lost some talent in the offseason and the AFC South isn’t a breeze by any means, but they did upgrade at some key spots.
   2. There’s not much offense on the roster, but the defense is solid enough to get a few wins on their own. We’ll take the OVER here given that Jacksonville – on average – wins greater than 5.5 games per simulated season.
2. The UNDER on the LA Chargers
   1. The Chargers have the second-worst differential between the posted Vegas line and AccuScore sims. On average, they win fewer than 7 games per simulated season – making the line at 8 fairly attractive.
   2. Looking ahead at the season, there’s three-to-five guaranteed wins against the likes of the Jaguars, Raiders, Jets, Panthers and Bengals. Their season will ultimately be determined by how they do vs: Atlanta, Miami and Denver.
3. The UNDER on Tampa Bay
   9. Surprise, surprise. Tampa Bay had the worst differential between the posted Vegas line and simulation data. On average they win UNDER 8 games per simulated season; tough to take the OVER on 9.5 with those projected numbers.
   10. Ultimately, this bet comes down to how confident you are in Tom Brady leading a team filled with proven talent that has yet to play together on the field. The experience on an individual talent level is off the charts, but can they put it together in a pandemic-impacted season to get to 10 wins?

Projected Super Bowl Matchup

As tough as it is to repeat as champs, our simulation data has the Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Dallas Cowboys in this season’s Super Bowl. The Chiefs are projected to beat the Baltimore Ravens to reach the final stage while the Cowboys are projected to beat the Seahawks.

Kansas City has close to a 19 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. The three other teams behind them have far lower probability (Baltimore at 11.6%; Dallas at 11.1%; Seattle at 5.8%).

Pure odds wise, looking ahead to the season – the biggest ‘value’ within that group is on the Ravens to win it all. In terms of a pure, overall value, we’ll go with the New Orleans Saints.