Written by Colin Kennedy
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Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
On Sunday Morning, the two premier teams in the AFC will battle to determine who wins their 6th game, and who drops to 5-2. While the Texans and Ravens are surprisingly the only teams in the AFC with winning records, this is hardly the match-up NFL Fans were salivating over last week. Three key Baltimore defenders were injured in their close victory over Dallas including Ray Lewis. Although the Ravens have won all six matchups between the two franchises, I fully expect the Texans to finally prove their worth as a part of the NFL elite with a victory on Sunday while also avenging their divisional playoff loss a year ago.
AccuScore simulations have Houston winning nearly 60 percent of the time. The average score from these simulations is 25.4 to 21.7 in favor of the Texans. Baltimore however has almost a 57 percent of covering the +6.5 point spread, and 54.4 percent of the time the teams combined to score under 48 points.
Fortunately for Gary Kubiak and Houston, Baltimore will be without Lewis as well as cornerbacks Ladarius Webb and Jimmy Smith. Defensive tackle Haloti Ngata is severely banged up and missed much of practice this week. The Ravens come into this match-up potentially missing four of their top defenders. There is a chance linebacker Terrell Suggs returns, but I doubt it. As many as six Baltimore defenders could miss this game, which would be devastating to their chances to win.
Even without these injuries, this is not the same Ravens defense that dominated NFL offenses over the past decade. The team once known for its outstanding run defense has allowed 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games against the Chiefs and the Cowboys. Offensively, the Texans shouldn’t be worried as AccuScore projects running back Arian Foster to rush for over 100 yards and add a touchdown. It would not be a surprise for Foster to surpass that figure early in the 3rd quarter if the Raven’s defense continues it’s less-than-stellar play.
If you factor in Ed Reed’s torn labrum, this Raven’s D is an absolute nightmare that becomes a liability against both the run and pass. While I don’t expect Reed to miss the game, the absence of Webb could factor into Houston’s Andre Johnson returning to form and having a season high in yards. Matt Schaub fantasy owners should be on alert; I would not be surprised to see him surpass AccuScore’s projection of 220 yards passing and a score.
If the Texan’s rush attack dominates early, there may not be much reason for Kubiak to call many pass plays down the stretch. While Schaub is more than a capable NFL quarterback, the offensive mentality of the Texans thus far has been to pound the rock and I wouldn’t expect them to stop with this Raven’s porous defense. If you happen to own Foster in your fantasy league expect him to have a big day despite Baltimore’s reputation as a good defense.
In order for the Ravens to stay in this game, they’ll have to dominate offensively, which they certainly have the ability to do. Quarterback Joe Flacco has really come into his own this season (almost 1700 yards passing, 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio), and has stepped up and become the offensive leader of the team. Going forward, Flacco could take over Ray Lewis’ role as team leader.
As Green Bay showed last week, the Texans have two huge Achilles’ heels: they have a weak secondary with depth issues, and they have trouble coming back from behind. While no team in the NFL can match the receiver depth of the Packers, the Ravens are comparable due to the talents of Torrey Smith (almost 400 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns), Anquan Bolding (400+ yards receiving) and Dennis Pitta (near 250 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns). Look for Flacco to exploit the middle of the field where the Texans are missing linebacker Brian Cushing (placed on the IR, knee surgery) and have the slower Bradie James as his full-time replacement. Smith has provided Flacco with a great down-the-field presence with great run after the catch capabilities. Johnathon Joseph, Houston’s top cornerback, is listed as questionable and is day-to-day with a groin injury; one has to wonder how that would affect his ability to cover the speedy Smith.
Baltimore not only has an up-and-coming passing game, but also features one of the league’s most consistent threats in running back Ray Rice whom AccuScore projects to gain over 110 total yards and a score. Trying to stop Rice will be Defensive Player of the Year candidate J.J. Watt. He has already compiled 32 tackles with 9.5 sacks and an insane eight pass deflections in just six games. Watt has the ability to contain Rice in the run game, and disrupt Flacco in the passing game.
Ultimately, this game will decide which team controls the AFC moving forward. While moving to 6-1 would create a two game gap of the loser of this game, the NFL season hasn’t reached halfway and there’s still tons of football left to play. This game will come down to the Texans defense and if they can build a sizeable lead over the Ravens with their offense. I don’t see the Ravens being able to limit Foster & Co., so Baltimore Coach John Harbaugh must hope for a shootout to protect his defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston walks away with this game easily.
