Written by Colin Kennedy

Follow @Metta_Colin on Twitter

Week 14: Baltimore Ravens v Washington Redskins

Playoff spots are on the line Sunday as the Ravens face their local rival Redskins. Baltimore, coming off a critical loss to the Roethlisberger-less Steelers, remains in the lead of the AFC North and could lock up a playoff berth. While the Ravens have failed in impress despite recent wins (4-1 record in the last five games), the Skins have won three in a row themselves. In fact, behind rookie superstar Robert Griffin III, Washington looks poised to rally for a playoff spot of its own. The Ravens are just 1-point dogs, and this figures to be an extremely close game.

Washington wins fifty one percent – read that again – fifty one percent of all simulations. The simulated point differential was a mere six-tenths of a point with the Redskins on top 22.4 to 21.8. There is a sixty-one percent chance the teams go under the 47.5 combined total. Washington won by double digits 26.6 percent of the time. Like always, the team that takes care of the ball usually wins, and simulations prove this theorem. When Baltimore’s Joe Flacco committed fewer turnovers (32 percent) his team won 82 percent of the time. Conversely, the Redskins won 68 percent of the simulations when they committed fewer turnovers.

AccuScore Membership is Free to try for 7 days, and membership includes the best simulation engine in sports picking against the spread, on totals, and on the moneyline for every game in Week 13 of the NFL season.

Both teams have similar offensive stats. The Redskins average 360 total yards, just better than the Ravens at 345. Flacco continues to disappoint his fantasy owners, and he projects to have another underwhelming game with 257 passing yards and a 1.1 to 0.7 TD-to-INT ratio, even against a depleted Washington secondary. Running back Ray Rice barely misses the 100 total yard mark while averaging 0.6 TDs in projections. Veteran wide receiver Anquan Boldin paces the receivers with 4.3 receptions, 63.6 yards and 0.3 TDs. Young speedster WR Torrey Smith is forecasted for 3 receptions for 58 yards and 0.2 TDs.

While the Ravens have some offensive weapons, Griffin is a true difference maker. His ability to score on any snap makes him this game’s most important player. Griffin is currently having a huge rookie campaign. In addition to guiding Washington to a 6-6 record, he has an outstanding 17 to 4 TD-to-INT ratio with a 104.4 quarterback rating. He is also a major force behind the league’s top rushing team; his 714 rushing yards has already broken the rookie yardage record with four games to play. Fellow rookie standout Alfred Morris has 1106 rushing yards and a 4.8 per carry average.

If Morris improves his simulated averages in ypc (3.6) and his average 0.4 TD to at least 1 (27 percent), it would improve his team’s chances of winning to 74 percent. Morris is projected to 65 yards on the ground against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Griffin averages almost 60 rushing yards himself in simulations. Uncharacteristically, Baltimore is ranked 23rd in the league against the run (126 yards per game).

Baltimore will have to stop or at least contain Griffin in order to win. Griffin has proven time and time again that he can lead his offense to score in just a single play. Whether it’s a 76 yard run against Minnesota in week six, or one of a few quick strikes to his receivers such as Leonard Hankerson, Pierre Garcon, or Santana Moss, it feels like he can score at will. While the Ravens are missing some of their best defenders (LB Ray Lewis, CB Lardarious Webb), their complicated defensive system will still be a lot to handle for Redskins’ offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Expect a lot of disguised looks from defensive coordinator Don Pees in an attempt to hide their weaknesses.

If Baltimore OLB Terrell Suggs is able to play through his bicep injury, his presence will be a huge boost to the pass rush. Coming off a horrendous game against Charlie Batch and the Steelers, the Ravens secondary must improve. The duo of safeties Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard are both listed on the injury report, but I expect both of them to play Sunday. The Ravens’ defense needs to continue their cohesive play. They averaged three sacks and almost two turnovers in simulations.

Washington quietly has a top five run defense holding opponents to just 91.5 rushing yards a game. Despite their own injury issues (OLB Brian Orakpo, DE Adam Carriker), the defense has held against the NFC East as seen in their consecutive victories over Philadelphia, Dallas and New York. While their run defense has been elite, their pass defense has been among the worst ranking 31st in the league. Without the injured DeAngelo Hall and the suspended Cedric Griffin, the young corner tandem of Richard Crawford and D.J. Johnson has been forced to play the majority of downs. Despite these circumstances, the Redskins have only allowed a single 300 yard passer over the past five games. Expect Flacco to look for Boldin and tight end Dennis Pitta on early downs, then to Smith for potential big gains down field.

Arguments can be made for both sides based on various match-ups in this game, but in reality this should be an extremely close game. While each team has strengths and weaknesses, they seem to even out. With the Redskins’ recent resurgence and momentum, I think they’ll take this game and eke out a 27-23 last second victory.