Written by Colin Kennedy

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NFC Showdown: Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Philadelphia is coming off their bye, and hopes the upcoming home game against Atlanta marks the turning point for team. In the wake of their collapse against the Lions in Week 6, Eagles coach Andy Reid terminated defensive coordinator Juan Castillo and replaced him with secondary coach Todd Bowles. If the team fails to show vast improvement over the next few weeks, wholesale changes will more than likely be made. It remains to be seen what the effects of having an experienced defensive coordinator will have on the Eagles.

The Falcons are only slight favorites in this matchup despite being the league’s lone undefeated team. AccuScore projects a close game with Atlanta winning 55 percent of the time. In simulations, the Falcons barely outscore the Eagles by an average score of 24.5 to 24. Turnovers will be crucial to the success of both teams. Atlanta commits fewer turnovers in 44 percent of sims winning 79 percent of the time when that occurs. The Eagles 64 percent of the time they commit fewer turnovers.

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While the Falcons have yet to lose, they have escaped a few close games by the slimmest of margins. The Falcons enter the game relatively healthy on offense; the biggest question mark will be how the loss of third receiver and slot player Harry Douglas (ankle injury) affects quarterback Matt Ryan.

The Falcons offense has established itself as one of the more consistent, balanced attacks in the league. Through six games, Ryan has passed for 1,750 yards and has a great touchdown to interception ratio of 14 to 6. AccuScore projects a monster game for Ryan as he throws for nearly 270 yards and two touchdowns in simulations. Running back Michael Turner is still capable of carrying the load as he has a 4.3 yards per carry average this season. AccuScore forecasts him to rush for just 50 yards against the Eagles, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he adds 20 to 30 yards to that total. Don’t count out an unexpected large game from the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers who is threat in passing game due to his open field agility.

Ryan has done an excellent job of spreading his throws around as opposing secondaries have not been able to contain the receiving trio of Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez (all have at least 53 targets). All three of those options are forecasted to exceed 55 yards receiving, with White leading the group with almost 80 yards. The Falcons are a hard team to contain already, but could be even tougher for an Eagle defense already in turmoil.

Philadelphia does come into the week with a fully healthy defense, and an extra week to prepare their new defensive scheme. Bowles has had some time to prepare a defense that is hoping create more turnovers. In order to keep the Atlanta offense in check, the Eagles secondary will have to bring their best effort. The Philly defense remains one of the league’s fastest and most talented groups, but they need to start making more plays. Cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will have to grab at least one interception off Ryan, while the defensive line led by Trent Cole need to help out by applying a consistent pass rush.

With all the problems Philadelphia has had on defense, the offense has perhaps been just as big of a problem. Through six games, Michael Vick has already thrown eight interceptions, lost five fumbles, and been sacked 17 times. Some have even speculated that Reid could pull Vick and play rookie Nick Foles if the veteran’s woes continue. While simulations show that Vick’s quarterback rating should rebound to a reasonable 85.4, he is still projected to be more likely throw an interception than a touchdown. After totaling just 75 rushing yards in the last two games, running back Lesean McCoy should rebound nicely with almost 80 yards rushing and I would expect another couple receptions as well.

Vick will have his skill players healthy, and AccuScore projects solid all-around games from both his receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin (both over 65 yards receiving while combining for nearly a TD). Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Falcons secondary has been the strength of their defense as their corners have played exceptionally well this season. Atlanta’s defense already has 10 interceptions this season. For the Eagles to pull an upset they’ll have to be clicking on all cylinders on offense, and Vick simply can’t turn the ball over. Being at home will be a huge factor for the Eagles, and they could potentially knock of the league’s last undefeated if they play up to their ability; this will be one of the closest games this Sunday.