NFL Week 16: Preview & Analysis

With only two weeks remaining, our super computer is determined to finish strong. This week, as ever other week, the computer incorporates every minor and major statistic to perform 10,000 simulations and arrive at projections and previews for every game in the Week 16 of the 2012 NFL season. Also, our computer, the best simulation engine in sports, has expert picks against the spread on over-unders, and on the moneyline for every game in Week 16. visit the NFL Expert Picks page for ATS and Totals picks.

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ATLANTA FALCONS @ DETROIT LIONS

There is a 67% chance that Matthew Stafford throws at least 1 INT and a 53% chance that Matt Ryan does. The greater rate of turnovers by Stafford is the reason why Atlanta is the 60% road favorite. If Stafford throws no INTs the Lions have a 56% chance of winning, but with 1 or more INTs the Lions only have a 33% chance. The Lions defense will look to get pressure on Matt Ryan and force mistakes. There is a 24% chance that the Lions sack Ryan at least 3 times and in these simulations the Lions win 54% of the time and Ryan averages 1 INT, but in the sims where they sack him under 3 times Ryan averages just 0.7 INTs and the Falcons win 63% of the time.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

With Clay Matthews back the Packers defense sacked Jay Cutler 4 times and allows just 135 passing yards. In simulations vs the Titans the defense is limiting Jake Locker to just a 49% completion percentage and is intercepting him 1.6 times per sim. With the defense clicking and the Packers averaging over 32 per sim Green Bay is the heavy 84% favorite. In simulations where the Titans win Locker only averages 0.8 INTs while passing for 1.6 TDs per sim. Even if Chris Johnson has a big 100 yard game the Titans are still 47% underdogs.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Cam Newton has 10 TDs and no INTs in his past 5 games and the Panthers are solid 65% home favorites and there is only a 50% chance that he throws one vs the Raiders and if he does the Panthers chances drop to 55%. If Cam has 200+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards the Panthers are heavy 77% favorites. Darren McFadden had 110 rushing yards last week vs the Chiefs, but as underdogs it is unlikely that McFadden will approach 30 carries. If McFadden averages at least 4.5 ypc for 75+ rushing yards then the Raiders are 55% favorites, but if he averages under 4.0 ypc the Raiders only have a 32% chance. He has averaged under 4.0 ypc in 8 of 10 games this season.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami is the 57% home favorite thanks to a strong defensive effort. The Top 8 run defense of the Dolphins are holding CJ Spiller to just 3.8 ypc in simulations. They held the RB (averaging 6.1 ypc for the season) to 4.1 ypc in Week 11. If Spiller averages at least 5.0 ypc then Buffalo is the 54% favorite. There is only a 31% chance that Buffalo gets the edge running the ball but if they do the Bills are 76% favorites. Ryan Tannehill has gone 3 weeks without an INT. If he has 1 or more INTs then Miami is the 46% underdog, but if he has no INTs the Dolphins are heavy 70% favorites.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are playing for their playoff lives and are 65% home favorites. Turnovers have killed the Steelers in crucial recent losses. In simulations where the Bengals win Andy Dalton averages just 0.4 INTs vs 1.0 for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers defense needs to stop BenJarvus Green-Ellis from having a big game. He is only averaging 2.8 ypc and 46 rushing yards in simulations. If he averages 4.0 or more ypc the Bengals have a 50-50 shot. If Green-Ellis outrushes Jonathan Dwyer then Cincinnati is the 57% favorite. Andy Dalton is completing 57% of his passes for 1.5 TDs and 0.6 INTs per sim. If he completes 60%+ for 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT the Bengals are 57% favorites.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

In their Week 15 loss Tom Brady threw more INTs than TDs and this was the only game this season where that happened. The Patriots are heavy 84% favorites, but there is a very small 7% chance he has more INTs than TD passes but if it happens New England is only the 56% favorite. There is a 45% chance that Chad Henne has more INTs than TDs and the Jags win a paltry 5% of these simulations. There is only a 16% chance Jacksonville wins but in these simulations Chad Henne averages 1.5 TDs and just 0.6 INTs and the Jags average 125 rushing yards per sim.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Jamaal Charles ran for 10 whole yards on 9 carries in Week 15. The Colts are one of the lowest rated defenses against the run allowing 4.8 ypc. Kansas City is only a 44% underdog because Charles is forecasted for 99 yards on 4.9 ypc. If Charles is held under 100 rushing yards the Chiefs only have a 28% chance, but if he has 100+ yards the Chiefs are 66% favorites. Andrew Luck has been great but his completion percentage is just 54.6%. If he completes 60%+ the Colts are heavy 77% favorites, but if he completes under 55% the Colts are slight 48% underdogs.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas is winning close games while the Saints offense is totally hit or miss. Even though Dallas is playing for the playoffs and the Saints are out of it in simulations the Saints are pulling off the upset in 52% of the sims. The Cowboys pass defense has allows opposing QBs to complete 62% of their passes for 19 TDs and just 7 INTs. Drew Brees averages 1.9 INTs in losses and 0.5 INTs in Saints wins this year. Because Brees has a 78% chance of throwing no more than 1 INT the Saints are favored. If Brees throws 2 or more INTs the Saints only have a 31% chance. The Cowboys will look to dominate 31st ranked run defense. If DeMarco Murray has at least 80 rushing yards on 4.5+ ypc the Cowboys are 65% favorites.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

With Kirk Cousins playing so well in Week 15 the Redskins are solid favorites vs the Eagles even if RGIII is not back. They are winning 67% of simulations with Alfred Morris averaging over 90 rushing yards per sim. There is only a 23% chance that the Eagles rush for more yards than the Redskins but if they do the Eagles are 73% favorites. Nick Foles has 4 TDs and just 1 INT in his past 3 games. If he has more TDs than INTs the Eagles chances improve from 33 to 48%, but if he has more INTs than TDs (just a 28% chance) the Eagles only win 15% of the simulations.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay was shutout in Week 15 and Doug Martin rushed for just 16 yards. He is forecasted to bounce back in a big way with 114 yards and as a result the Bucs are 66% favorites. If Martin does not have a big game and has under 100 rushing yards Tampa Bay becomes the 47% underdog and if St. Louis rushes for more yards the Rams are 72% favorites. Sam Bradford put up decent numbers despite getting blown out in Week 15. If he has more TD passes than INTs the Rams have nearly a 50% chance of winning.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Both teams are reeling and this is the closest game in simulations with under 0.1 points per sim separating them. If the Ravens get healthier on defense (Lewis, Pollard, Ellerbe, etc.) they are the slightest 50.3% favorite, but if any of these key defenders are out again the Ravens are 48% underdogs. Both Joe Flacco and Eli Manning turned the ball over in their opening drives last week. Both are completing under 60% of their passes and are averaging 1 INT per sim. If Flacco throws fewer INTs than Manning, Baltimore is the 70% favorite. If the reverse is true then the Giants are 73% favorites.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans are heavy 72% favorites but in the matchup of premiere running backs Adrian Peterson is getting the edge with a 63% chance of rushing for more yards than Arian Foster. If Peterson out-rushes Foster then the Vikings do have an improved 43% chance. To pull of the upset Peterson needs to out-rush Foster and Christian Ponder cannot throw any INTs. If both things happen the Vikings win 61% of the simulations. Matt Schaub is completing nearly 70% of his passes for a better than 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio. There is only a 9% chance that Schaub throws more INTs than TDs but if this happens the Texans only have a 40% chance.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos are heavy 76% favorites with a balanced offensive attack. Peyton Manning is putting up his normal big numbers 67% completion percentage, 273 yards, over 2 TDs per sim and under 1 INT. Knowshon Moreno is averaging nearly 90 rushing yards. While the chances are slim, if Trent Richardson rushes for more yards and Peyton Manning throws one or more INTs the Browns have a 55% chance. There is only a 19% chance of this scenario. The Denver defense has been stellar and if they hold Richardson to under 4.0 ypc and they rack up at least 3 sacks the Broncos are heavy 85% favorites.

CHICAGO BEARS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Bears have been playing poorly but are 70% favorites this week. Familiarity is not a good thing for Jay Cutler. This year he has averaged 1.3 INTs vs NFC North opponents and just 0.86 INTs vs the non-division rivals. Even though the Cardinals pass defense has been excellent and Cutler is only completing 54% of his passes there is a 79% chance he throws no more than 1 INT and if he does the Bears are 76% favorites. Ryan Lindley has 6 INTs and no TD passes. If the Cardinals intercept Cutler more than the Bears intercept Lindley the Cardinals are 62% favorites, but if Lindley throws more INTs than Cutler Chicago is the heavy 85% favorite.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ER @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks have dominated opponents in recent weeks but San Francisco is getting the slight 53% edge in simulations. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson are putting nearly identical numbers completing 61% of their passes for 210 yards, 1.4 TDs and 0.7 INTs per sim. Both are rushing for 25+ yards. San Francisco is favored because of a +20 yard edge rushing the ball. The 49ers allow 3.6 ypc while Seattle allows 4.5 ypc. There is a 42% chance that Seattle rushes for more yards and if this happens the Seahawks are 75% favorites. But if the 49ers get the edge then San Francisco is the 73% favorite.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ NEW YORK JETS

The Chargers solidly beat Pittsburgh in Week 14 and then put up a horrible effort in Week 15. But the Jets were even worst on Monday Night and the Chargers are surprisingly winning 54% of the simulations. Philip Rivers has a nearly 50% chance of throwing 2 or more TD passes. In these simulations the Chargers win 64% of the time. Rivers is averaging 1.5 interceptions and lost fumbles per sim. If he has 2 or more turnovers the Jets are the 58% favorite, but if he can limit it to no more than 1 the Chargers are 60% favorites. For the Jets to win they need to rush for at least 125 yards. If they do, their chances of winning increase to 66%.