NFL Week 11: Preview & Analysis

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MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS

The Dolphins saw their playoff chances plummet from 50% two weeks ago to below 10% with back to back AFC losses and now they are 46% underdogs to Buffalo. For Buffalo to win Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to limit interceptions. If he has no more than 1 INT the Bills have a 62% chance, but in the 30% of simulations where he has 2 or more INTs the Bills only win 35% of the time. Ryan Tannehill threw 3 INTs vs Tennessee. There is a 35% chance that he has more TD passes than INTs and if he does the Dolphins are 67% favorites. Reggie Bush has struggled for the past month. If the Dolphins out-rush Buffalo then Miami is the 70% favorite, but if Buffalo is better on the ground they are nearly 80% favorites.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Redskins are 62% home favorites vs the Eagles. Rookies Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin III are combining for over 170 rushing yards per simulation and Washington is +90 rushing vs the Eagles in simulations. If LeSean McCoy rushes for more yards than Alfred Morris (a 41% chance) then Philly is the 63% favorite. Nick Foles is likely to start with Michael Vick having a concussion. If Foles has a big game completing over 60% of his passes for more TDs than INTs then Philly is the 62% favorite. If Robert Griffin III has 200+ passing yards and 75+ rushing yards then Washington is the heavy 75% favorite.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS

Matthew Stafford is on pace to see his TD production plummet by more than 50% vs last season. He is forecasted to have 2 TDs vs the Packers but Green Bay is the 65% favorite. There is only a 22% chance that Stafford has more passing TDs than Aaron Rodgers, but if he does Detroit is the 68% favorite. If Rodgers has more TD passes (a 54% chance) then Green Bay is the 82% favorite. Detroit needs to force turnovers to pull off the upset. There is a 17% chance that Detroit intercepts Rodgers at least twice and if they do the Lions have a 59% chance of winning, but there is a 49% chance Rodgers has 0 INTs and if so the Lions only have a 25% chance.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons are heavy 82% favorites with a 61% chance of winning by 10 or more points. Matt Ryan is averaging 2 TD passes vs just 0.7 INTs. There is only a 12% chance that Ryan has more INTs than TD passes but if he does the Cardinals have a 42% chance. If the Cardinals can also hold Michael Turner under 3.5 ypc then Arizona is the 53% favorite. The far more common scenario has Ryan throwing more TDs than INTs and Turner averages over 4.0 ypc. If Atlanta's offense has these numbers they are overwhelming 94% favorites.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Cam Newton is averaging 35 more passing yards per sim than Josh Freeman, but Freeman is averaging 1.6 TDs vs Newton's 1.1 TDs and Newton is also throwing 0.5 more INTs per sim. As a result, Tampa Bay is the 54% road favorite. Besides another quality Freeman performance, Doug Martin is averaging nearly 120 rushing and receivIng yards. There is a 51% chance Martin has at least 80 rushing yards and if he does Tampa Bay is the 71% favorite. If he is held under 80 yards rushing then Tampa Bay only has a 37% chance.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys are 74% home favorites and are forecasted to hold the Browns to under 20 points. Brandon Weeden is only completing 55% of his passes and Trent Richardson is only averaging 3.5 ypc. If Weeden completes over 60% of his passes and Richardson averages 4.5 or more ypc then Cleveland is the 53% slight favorite. But if Weeden completes under 60% and Richardson averages under 4.5 ypc then Cleveland only has a 19% chance. Tony Romo threw no INTs in Week 10. There is a 42% chance he has no INTs this week and if so Dallas is the heavy 85% favorite. Two or more INTs by Romo and this game becomes a 50-50 toss-up.

NEW YORK JETS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Jets are 49% underdogs vs the Rams with Mark Sanchez completing just 52% of his passes and more INTs than TDs in simulations. If Sanchez can have a big game with 60%+ CMP and more TDs than INTs then the Jets are heavy 78% favorites. But there is also a 28% chance Sanchez completes under half of his passes with at least 1 INT and if he plays poorly the Jets only have a 33% chance. The Jets are the 30th ranked run defense and the Rams are projected for 120 rushing yards on 4.5 ypc. If the Rams are held to under 100 rushing yards then the Jets are are 70% favorites, but if the Rams have 120 or more rushing yards (a 43% chance) then STL is the 72% favorite.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Andrew Luck is projected for more passing yards than Tom Brady (310 to 290) but Brady is averaging nearly 1 more TD pass and is throwing half as many INTs as Luck. If Luck has at least 2 TDs and Tom Brady throws more INTs than Luck then the Colts are 51% favorites. The Colts are not forecasted to run the ball very well with a team average of just 3.8 ypc. In the simulations where the Colts win they average 4.2 ypc so the running game is not the biggest factor for Indy to pull of the upset. It is definitely Luck who averages 316 yards, 2 TDs and just 0.6 INTs in simulation wins and 308 yards, 1.3 TDs and 1.2 INTs in simulation losses.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans should dominate this game with a 82% chance of winning and a 61% chance of winning by at least 10. The Texans are holding the Jaguars passing game to a sub 50% completion percentage and the running game to just 3.2 ypc. If the Jaguars’ QBs complete a higher percentage of passes than Matt Schaub and the Jags average over 4.5 ypc the Jags are still 44% underdogs. Arian Foster is averaging 110 yards per sim. If the Jags hold Foster to under 75 yards and no more than 1 TD then Jacksonville has a 50% chance.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Bengals are 62% favorites with Andy Dalton projected for 250 yards and 2 TDs. There is a 58% chance that AJ Green has another receiving TD and if he does the Bengals have a 69% chance. But if the Chiefs defense stop Green from scoring and Dalton throws at least 1 INT the Chiefs actually are the 54% favorite. The Chiefs horrendous turnovers and inconsistent running game have destroyed them all season. In simulation wins the Chiefs turn the ball over 1.5 times and rush for nearly 170 yards. In simulation losses the Chiefs averages just 117 rushing yards with over 2 turnovers.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Saints are expected to build on their win over Atlanta and have a 72% chance of beating the reeling Raiders. Oakland has allowed 97 points to the Bucs and Ravens the past 2 weeks. The Saints are only averaging 30 points per sim, but that is still good enough to win by 8 on average. If the Saints score 35 or more (a 31% chance) the Saints are overwhelming 95% favorites. There is only a 35% chance that the Saints score 25 or less and the Raiders have a 59% chance of they can step up defensively. The key to the Raiders winning is being able to run the ball and keep the Saints offense off the field. In simulations where they win the Raiders average 160 rushing yards vs just 94 in simulations where they lose.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Philip Rivers is matching Peyton Manning in passing yards (both projected for 293) but with a 67% chance of throwing at least one INT and just a 25% chance that Manning throws more INTs than Rivers the Broncos are the 59% favorite. This game is closer than some might expect because Rivers is completing nearly 64% of his passes with a 2 TD simulation average. If Rivers completes 65%+ for 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT then the Chargers are 66% favorites. But if Manning has a good game (65%+ CMP, 2+ TDs) and Rivers throws more INTs than Manning, the Broncos are the heavy 82% favorite.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are the 57% home favorite winning by an average of a field goal if Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. But if Roethlisberger cannot play the Steelers are only a 50.1% favorite with just 0.1 points separating them in average simulation score. The Ravens run defense is no longer dominant but they are holding the Steelers to under 4 ypc in this matchup of familiar foes. The Ravens are only mustering 3.5 ypc vs the Steelers defense. If Baltimore gets the edge in the running game they become the 70% favorite. But if Pittsburgh can average at least 4.5 ypc and Byron Leftwich completes 60% of his passes the Steelers become the solid 77% favorite.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The 49ers are 56% home favorites with Alex Smith currently looking like he will be available after a concussion. Jay Cutler's status is still unknown. If Jason Campbell starts he is forecasted for 230 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Bears are only averaging 2.9 ypc vs the stout 49ers run defense. If Chicago averages 4.0 or more ypc then Chicago is the 60% favorite. If the Bears defense gets at least one interception and holds San Francisco to under 4.0 ypc then Chicago is the 63% favorite.