AFC

Peyton Manning’s injury has affected the Colts more than just their Week 1 loss to Houston.  AccuScore NFL betting previews previously had Indianapolis as the favorite in the AFC South, but that has all changed after just one week.  Indy loss combined with the uncertainty behind Manning’s health has dropped the team a massive 46.7 percent in playoff probability.  The Texans are the biggest beneficiaries jumping 19.1 percentage points in playoff probability, and becoming the division favorite at 46.6 percent.  The Jaguars also won their opening game, and benefitted from the Colts’ misfortune to add 15.4 percent to their playoff odds.  The Titans lost to the Jags, but still gained in the projected playoff standings due to Manning’s injury.

The Chiefs not only lost at home to open the season, but Kansas City lost to a team that won just four games a year ago (Buffalo).  Kansas City dropped 11.6 percentage points as a result and is just 2.7 percent likely to win the AFC West.  The Chargers remain the favorite after a solid win over the Vikings.  Oakland used its power rushing attack to beat up on the Broncos Monday night and made the biggest gains in the AFC West, jumping up to 38 percent likelihood for a playoff spot.  The poor performance for the Broncos dropped them all the way down to just a 0.8 percent chance to win the division after just one week.

Buffalo blitzed Kansas City in Arrowhead, and the impressive performance boosted hope for the downtrodden team for at least a week.  The Bills gained 14.9 percentage points in playoff probability but still remain a longshot because they play in the AFC East.  The Patriots were awfully impressive in the passing game, and are the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 92.2 percent.  The Jets came back on Sunday night, and are now more likely to make the postseason than not at 51 percent.  Chad Henne was a bright spot for Miami throwing for 416 yards in a loss to New England.  The Dolphins, though, are in a big hole, as they are the only AFC East team with a loss. As a result, Miami lost 8.9 percentage points in the playoff projections.

Baltimore routed Pittsburgh in what might’ve been the most surprising result of Week 1.  As a result the Ravens are up to 63.2 percent to win the AFC North while the Steelers are down to 34.2 percent.  The Steelers, though, are still 78.1 percent likely to make the postseason as one of the Wild Card teams.  Cincinnati beat Cleveland in the battle to avoid the basement in the North.

NFC

Each of the four teams in the NFC South lost in Week 1.  Still, based on an electric offensive performance, the Saints actually gained 7.7 percentage points in the projected playoff standings.  New Orleans is the clear favorite to win the division at 69.8 percent.  Atlanta was expected to be the main competition for Drew Brees and company, but the Falcons were handily defeated by Chicago dropping their playoff odds a whopping 31.8 percent.  The Falcons must improve on the road in order to compete against New Orleans.  Tampa Bay lost its opener to Detroit and fell 18 percentage points.  Carolina has to be excited at the performance of rookie Cam Newton, but it still wasn’t enough to get a win.  Unless Newton throws for 400 yards every week, the Panthers will still be at the bottom of the standings and are just 3.7 percent likely for a playoff spot.

Chicago’s big win over Atlanta resulted in a big 25.2 percent increase in the playoff odds.  However, the Bears still only have an 18.4 percent chance to win the NFC North because of the presence of the Packers.  Green Bay looks like it picked up right where it left off from last year’s playoffs, and the Packers are 66.3 percent likely to win the division.  Detroit showed that it might indeed be one of the most improved teams in the NFC by beating Tampa.  The Lions gained 16.3 percent to move to a 45.6 percent chance to reach the playoffs.

Philadelphia’s “super team” beat the Rams behind another strong performance from Michael Vick.  The Eagles are the favorite in the competitive NFC East at 45.1 percent to win the division.  The Cowboys are the second favorite despite losing to the Jets in their opener.  Dallas fell just 4.6 percentage points despite the loss.  The Giants were thoroughly outplayed by Washington in both teams’ opener, but New York is still projected third in the division.  The Redskins did gain 9.5 percentage points in the playoff standings and are now 16.3 percent likely to make the playoffs.

The NFC West still remains a muddled division.  The Niners are still the favorite at 47.6 percent but gained just 4.4 percent in the playoff standings overall.   That is because the Wild Card spots are much more likely to come from the other three divisions, and only one team from the West is probable to make the postseason.  Arizona is second in the projected standings at 30 percent to win the division.  St. Louis has to hope the injuries to Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson are not serious, or Week 1 may be much more damaging than just a 0-1 start.  For now, the Rams fell just 3.5 percentage points since they were not favored to beat Philadelphia anyway.  Seattle, meanwhile, looks like a real longshot to repeat in the division at just 6.4 percent.