By Jonathan Lee

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Very little is settled in the AFC playoff picture.  New England has clinched a first-round bye, but still has the top seed to play for.  Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh are in, but have the AFC North crown and the top seed on the line in Week 17.  The only certainty seed is Houston, who is locked in to the third position as the AFC South champion.

Denver is in the driver seat for the AFC West.  The Broncos can win the division by beating the Chiefs or with an Oakland loss.  They are 56.2 percent likely to make the postseason.  The Raiders need Denver to lose to win the division, but there is still an avenue for them to gain a Wild Card entry.  Oakland needs to win combined with a Cincinnati loss and either a Jets win or Titans loss (or tie).  The Raiders have a 47.8 percent chance at the division, and a 53.3 percent chance overall at the playoffs.  Last week, they were only 21.2 percent likely to make the postseason.

Cincinnati only needs to win or tie against Baltimore at home to guarantee a playoff spot.  The Ravens, however, still have much to play for, but the Bengals can still secure a spot if the Jets lose and either the Broncos or Raiders lose.  Cincinnati is 66.9 percent likely to garner one of the Wild Card spots, more than twice the odds it had after Week 15.

Improbably, the Jets and Titans are still alive for Wild Card spots.  The Jets need to win and hope both Cincinnati and Tennessee lose while either Oakland or Denver lose (or tie) as well.  The playoff scenario for the Titans is even more convoluted than for the Jets.  New York has a 14.6 percent chance of its Wild Card scenario playing out while Tennessee has a 9.1 percent chance.  The Chiefs and Chargers were eliminated this past week.

AFC	WEEK 16 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 16	WK 17	% DIFF	WIN DIV
CINCINNATI BENGALS	30.2%	66.9%	36.7%	0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	21.2%	53.3%	32.1%	47.8%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	67.3%
BUFFALO BILLS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
HOUSTON TEXANS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	32.7%
TENNESSEE TITANS	10.1%	9.1%	-0.9%	0.0%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	5.8%	0.0%	-5.8%	0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS	67.3%	56.2%	-11.1%	52.2%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	23.8%	0.0%	-23.8%	0.0%
NEW YORK JETS	41.6%	14.6%	-27.0%	0.0%

NFC

The NFC race is simple.  Green Bay is the top seed, and has nothing to play for in Week 17 except pride and a 15-1 record.  Either San Francisco or New Orleans will earn the coveted two-seed, and a first round bye in the postseason.  The Niners need only to beat the Rams to secure the bye or for the Saints to lose.  New Orleans must get a win combined with a San Francisco loss or tie.  Detroit and Atlanta have clinched the two Wild Card spots.

The only real drama remaining is the NFC East champion which will be the four-seed in the playoffs.  Dallas will travel to New York Week 17 with the division crown on the line.  Both teams have struggled down the stretch, but all of that doesn’t matter as this game is winner take all.  Currently the Cowboys are slight favorites to come out on top at 52. 7 percent, but they have to hope Tony Romo’s swollen hand does not negatively affect his play. Arizona, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Chicago were all eliminated from the playoff chase after Week 16.

NFC	WEEK 16 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 16	WK 17	% DIFF	WIN DIV
DETROIT LIONS	80.2%	100.0%	19.8%	0.0%
NEW YORK GIANTS	29.1%	47.3%	18.2%	47.3%
ATLANTA FALCONS	94.6%	100.0%	5.4%	0.0%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CHICAGO BEARS	3.4%	0.0%	-3.4%	0.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	6.7%	0.0%	-6.7%	0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	9.9%	0.0%	-9.9%	0.0%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	10.0%	0.0%	-10.0%	0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS	66.1%	52.7%	-13.3%	52.7%