By Jonathan Lee

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AFC

The Raiders have taken over the lead in the AFC West at 7-4 after winning 3 in a row.  They are 75.2 percent likely to win the division, and hold a one game lead over the Broncos.  Tim Tebow has led Denver to wins in 4 of the last 5 games making his team the biggest gainer in the projected standings this week.  The Broncos are 20.1 percent likely to win the division.  San Diego has fallen off a cliff losing six games in a row, and now only has a 4.6 percent chance at making the playoffs.  The Chiefs are going nowhere fast with Tyler Palko and are almost eliminated from the playoff chase.

Three AFC North teams are again projected as playoff teams this week.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both better than 96 percent likely to reach the postseason.  The Ravens though have the inside track at the division at 51.5 percent followed by the Steelers at 42.6 percent.  Cincinnati is the leader for the final Wild Card spot making the playoffs 57.5 percent of the time. Cleveland has actually played some decent football of late, but reached 0.0 percent in playoff probability this week.

Houston is down to its third string quarterback, but still leads the AFC South by two games and is the overwhelming favorite to win the division.  The Texans did lose 5.2 percentage points in playoff probability this week, but are still 89.6 percent likely to reach the postseason.  Tennessee still has a chance of catching the Texans gaining 6.9 percentage points in this week’s projections.  Jacksonville fell to 0.0 percent probability after another loss.  Indianapolis has an 18.5 percent chance of finishing the season winless.

New England is getting closer to lock status for the playoffs at 99.6 percent probability.  The Jets survived a battle with division rival Buffalo to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.  New York is still in a precarious position, but reaches the playoffs in 21.6 percent of simulations.  Buffalo was effectively eliminated with the loss losing 9.5 percentage points this week. Miami came close to winning its fourth in a row, but instead was eliminated completely from playoff contention according to AccuScore simulations.

AFC	WEEK 12 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 12	WK 13	% DIFF	WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS	20.3%	29.7%	9.4%	20.1%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	49.0%	57.5%	8.5%	5.9%
TENNESSEE TITANS	16.3%	23.1%	6.9%	13.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	75.1%	78.9%	3.8%	75.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	92.9%	96.3%	3.4%	51.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	98.8%	99.6%	0.8%	99.4%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	0.9%	0.9%	-0.1%	0.8%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	97.3%	96.9%	-0.4%	42.6%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.7%	0.0%	-0.7%	0.0%
NEW YORK JETS	23.2%	21.6%	-1.6%	0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS	94.8%	89.6%	-5.2%	87.0%
BUFFALO BILLS	10.5%	1.5%	-9.0%	0.2%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	20.0%	4.6%	-15.4%	3.9%

NFC

The NFC playoff picture is much clearer than in the AFC.  San Francisco and Green Bay are both locks according to AccuScore simulations, and the only thing to play for is home field and history.  The Niners still have an outside shot of catching Green Bay for the top seed, but if not should still earn a bye.  The Packers are 11-0 and have a 32.1 percent chance of going undefeated.

The Saints and Cowboys are big-time favorites to win the South and East respectively, each at over 77 percent.  New Orleans is almost a near-lock to reach the playoffs at 98.1 percent even if it were to be caught by Atlanta for the division lead.  The Falcons are significant favorites for one Wild Card spot gaining a whopping 27.4 percentage points this week after winning their second straight game.  They are making the playoffs in 76.7 percent of simulations.  The Bears hold the edge for the other Wild Card spot at 59.2 percent.  That is the only route into the postseason for Chicago because Green Bay already has the division locked up.

Detroit and New York are the only real challengers for either Wild Card spot.  The Lions reach the playoffs 39.7 percent of the time while the Giants are projected to do so 33.2 percent of the time.  New York got absolutely lit up by New Orleans on Monday night causing a huge 29.2 percentage point drop in probability.  The other eight teams in the NFC all have between two and four wins.  Philadelphia is the only longshot with any kind of chance because the division is still within three games in the standings.  The Eagles have a 2.4 percent chance to miraculously win the East and a 4.2 percent shot overall at the postseason.

NFC	WEEK 12 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 11	WK 13	% DIFF	WIN DIV
ATLANTA FALCONS	49.3%	76.7%	27.4%	21.3%
DALLAS COWBOYS	74.4%	84.3%	9.9%	77.3%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	93.5%	98.1%	4.6%	78.7%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	99.8%	100.0%	0.2%	99.9%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	0.9%	0.9%	0.0%	0.2%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	0.2%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
CHICAGO BEARS	59.6%	59.2%	-0.5%	0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	4.9%	4.2%	-0.7%	2.4%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	2.9%	1.7%	-1.2%	0.0%
DETROIT LIONS	42.9%	39.7%	-3.2%	0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	8.1%	1.4%	-6.7%	0.0%
NEW YORK GIANTS	62.3%	33.2%	-29.2%	20.0%