By Jonathan Lee

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AFC

If only Baltimore just played home games or against division rivals.  The Ravens beat the Bengals at home to, once again, tie Pittsburgh atop the AFC North at 7-3.  Both the Ravens and Steelers are well over 92 percent probability to reach the playoffs, meaning they are likely to be fighting for the division crown and seeding.  All three of Baltimore’s losses have come on the road, so the division title looks to be significantly more important for the Ravens than the Steelers.  However, Cincinnati is still in the playoff race, making the postseason in 49 percent of simulations, but it becomes more difficult every week.  Despite losing 19.4 percentage points in playoff probability this week, the Bengals are still the leading contender for a Wild Card spot.  Playing in the same division as two of the best franchises in football is not easy.

Tim Tebow and the Broncos defense took advantage of a short week to beat the Jets on Thursday night.  Denver has now won four of five games to jump seriously into the AFC West race, trailing Oakland by only one game.  The Broncos gained 14.8 percentage points in playoff probability and are up to 20.3 percent overall. Oakland, though, is far and away the division leader at the moment, winning the division in 70.5 percent of simulations.  San Diego used to be where Oakland is right now, but the Chargers (especially Philip Rivers) have seemingly forgotten how to play good football.  The Chargers are only 15 percent likely to win the division with 6 weeks to go.  The Chiefs have issues everywhere and are the only AFC West team out of the race.

Houston lost quarterback Matt Schaub last week, and sat out with a bye but still managed to gain four percent in playoff probability.  That is because Tennessee lost and fell a full two games behind in the standings with six weeks remaining.  Even with Matt Leinart as the starter, the Texans are firmly in the driver’s seat for the AFC South crown.  Houston is 93.1 percent likely to win the division.  Tennessee is just 6.8 percent likely to catch Houston for the division and must now be concerned with Matt Hasselbeck’s health. It might soon be time to get Jake Locker ready for next season. Jacksonville lost to the lowly Browns, ending any kind of longshot possibilities.  Indianapolis has a 16.5 percent chance of going 0-16 with 6 weeks remaining.

The Patriots beat up on the Chiefs on Monday Night, but the real story in the AFC East is New York.  The Jets lost a golden opportunity on Thursday night against the Broncos, and are now in a dogfight for a Wild Card berth.  New York is tied with three other teams at 5-5 trailing Cincy for the final playoff spot. There is now less than a 1 in 4 chance that the Jets advance to the postseason.  New England is a virtual lock for the playoffs at 98.8 percent.  Buffalo is actually tied with New York at 5-5, but it is further out of the picture at just 10 percent probability.  Miami has actually won three games in a row and has a positive point differential, but would have to win out and get plenty of help to even have any kind of chance at the playoffs.

AFC	WEEK 11 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 11	WK 12	% DIFF	WIN DIV
BALTIMORE RAVENS	77.4%	92.9%	15.5%	43.2%
DENVER BRONCOS	5.5%	20.3%	14.8%	13.9%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	60.8%	75.1%	14.3%	70.5%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	91.5%	97.3%	5.8%	51.8%
HOUSTON TEXANS	90.8%	94.8%	4.1%	93.1%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	95.1%	98.8%	3.7%	97.3%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.2%	0.7%	0.6%	0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3%	0.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS	18.2%	16.3%	-1.9%	6.8%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	4.3%	0.9%	-3.4%	0.7%
NEW YORK JETS	30.9%	23.2%	-7.7%	0.8%
BUFFALO BILLS	20.9%	10.5%	-10.4%	1.9%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	35.7%	20.0%	-15.7%	15.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	68.4%	49.0%	-19.4%	5.0%

NFC

The NFC North was playing out similarly to its AFC counterpart with three division team projected for the playoffs. Green Bay is already a lock at 100 percent, and Detroit and Chicago occupying both Wild Card spots.  The Lions make the playoffs in 45.4 percent of simulations.  The Bears however may have their momentum halted with the injury to quarterback Jay Cutler.  Despite the injury the Bears gained 13.5 percentage points in playoff probability this week and are 73 percent likely to win a Wild Card spot.  Luckily for Chicago, the remaining is schedule is very soft with three consecutive AFC West teams coming up. Also, the Packers now have a 16.7% chance of going 16-0. 

The Falcons are the team the Bears and Lions should be most concerned about, lurking just a game back in the standings.  Atlanta is actually more likely than Detroit to make the playoffs at 58.4 percent.  New Orleans is 92 percent probable for the playoffs, but there is still an opening for Atlanta to win the South title.  Tampa Bay almost got a massive upset at Lambeau Field, but the Week 11 loss effectively ended its playoff hopes.  The Bucs make the playoffs in just 4.6 percent of simulations.

The Dallas Cowboys maintained their lead in the NFC East for the second straight week.  They are 64 percent likely to win the division, and are the most likely division team to win a Wild Card spot should it not win the title.  The Giants could have put themselves in a great position with a win on Sunday, but they couldn’t stop Vince Young when they needed to and fell behind Dallas.  New York is 31 percent likely to win the division and 44 percent likely for a playoff spot.  Philadelphia kept its faint hopes alive with that late win over New York.  The Eagles still have a seven percent chance of salvaging the season.

San Francisco has reached 100 percent playoff probability, and is now only playing for the top seed in the NFC.  The Niners already have nine wins by Week 11.  Seattle, Arizona, and St. Louis combined have nine wins on the season.  The Seahawks are the only other NFC West team with a glimmer of hope because at 4-6 winning out would get them to 10 wins.  That scenario is highly unlikely.

NFC	WEEK 11 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 11	WK 12	% DIFF	WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS	59.6%	73.1%	13.5%	0.8%
ATLANTA FALCONS	49.3%	58.4%	9.1%	23.2%
DETROIT LIONS	42.9%	45.4%	2.5%	0.5%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	4.9%	7.2%	2.3%	4.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	2.9%	3.2%	0.4%	0.1%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	99.8%	100.0%	0.2%	99.9%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	98.7%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	0.2%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	0.7%	0.2%	-0.5%	0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	0.9%	0.2%	-0.7%	0.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	93.5%	91.9%	-1.5%	75.9%
DALLAS COWBOYS	74.4%	72.2%	-2.3%	64.1%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	8.1%	4.6%	-3.4%	0.9%
NEW YORK GIANTS	62.3%	43.6%	-18.8%	31.1%