Written by Jon Lee
Follow @thejonlee on Twitter
NFL Playoff Shifts After Week 4
The NFC is the conference of change with seven teams shifting at least 24 percent in playoff probability after just four weeks of play. Three of those teams gained or lost at least 43 percentage points, with new teams emerging as playoff threats and would-be contenders turning out to be frauds.
Arizona is probably the biggest surprise in the entire NFL, not just the NFC. The Cardinals sprinted out to a 4-0 record behind steady play from quarterback Kevin Kolb and an aggressive, dominant defense. The Cardinals were just 4.3 percent likely to make the playoffs before Week 1, but now, they are a legitimate threat to San Francisco in the West. The Niners, though, are 3-1 and are still the favorites for the division at 64.3 percent.
Two teams have actually gained more in the projections than even Arizona. Minnesota has beaten both Detroit and San Francisco, and neither win looked like a fluke. Christian Ponder is completing 68.3 percent of his passes and has yet to throw an interception. He, along with the superhuman return of running back Adrian Peterson, has powered the Vikings to the biggest probability gain in the league at 43 percent.
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Atlanta was expected to be a Super Bowl contender, and nothing they have done up to this point has changed that. The Falcons are 4-0 and might be the consensus favorite to win it all, along with Houston. A hot start combined with the complete decimation of the Saints has led the Falcons to be already 91 percent likely to win the South. All that may remain now is securing home field throughout the playoffs.
Aside from New Orleans, Detroit is the biggest disappointment in the NFC. The Lions are just 1-3, and the defense has been extremely poor allowing nearly 30 points a game. They have lost 47.5 percentage points in playoff probability, and the Lions are only saved from being the biggest loser by the Saints.
The East is still completely jumbled with Washington gaining behind the spectacular play of Robert Griffin III. The Eagles hold a one-game lead, but Philly has been outscored on the year. Expect this race to continue on deep into the season.
The AFC playoff picture has been much more stable compared to the NFC. The good teams in the preseason – San Diego, Houston, and Baltimore – have been good, and the poor teams – Oakland, Kansas City, New York – have been bad, as expected.
The Chargers have done well to remind everyone that the Broncos don’t get to win the AFC West just because they have Peyton Manning. San Diego has a one-game edge in the standings after four weeks and are the favorites in the division winning 68.4 percent of the time. Denver lost a bit of ground from the preseason, but the Broncos are still strong contenders with the Chiefs and Raiders already being long shots for the postseason.
Houston looks like a clear Super Bowl favorite and is the only team in the AFC South at even .500 or better. With such a commanding lead, the Texans are nearly 98 percent likely to win the division and are already playing for homefield in the AFC.
New England is just 2-2, but the Patriots have already won twice on the road and have scored the most points in the NFL. The Patriots are still completely safe for the playoffs at 94 percent. The same cannot be said of any of their division mates, with the Jets mired in a quarterback quagmire, and Buffalo being Buffalo. Miami has actually played better than could have been expected, but the Dolphins have less than a 1 in 5 shot at the postseason.
The real division to watch might just be the AFC North yet again. Baltimore is the clear frontrunner, winning the division nearly 70 percent of the time. Cincinnati, however, is 3-1 behind the continually maturing Andy Dalton. The Bengals’ playoff odds have crept over 40 percent. The simulations still believe in Pittsburgh, despite a 1-2 start and the offense being mediocre at best. The Steelers still make the postseason 64.2 percent of the time, but they need to start winning games, or else a sharp slide down the standings is to be expected.
