Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter
2016 NFL regular Season Recap: Winning! Big Time!
At the beginning of the NFL season, the Accuscore supercomputer simulated each and every regular season game. We predicted the most probable number of wins for every team and compared those to Vegas season totals win line. In addition to this we picked three teams for our value picks worth investing bigger bets at the start of the season. As the regular season is over, it is time to check back and see how we did.
Preseason simulations predicted an even league with no teams over 11 wins and no teams under 4 wins. At that time, we thought that this kind of parity is not normal in the NFL, so we didn’t use our value picks on teams the computer put the bottom or top, teams like New England, Cleveland and San Francisco that were predicted to be best and worst teams. There were also four teams where our simulated amount of wins and Vegas line were exactly same.
Out of 32 teams we got season totals correct for 15 teams, 9 were wrong and 8 were calculated into the push column. When converting this to money won or lost from bets, 100 dollar investment for every team in August generated 450 dollar pure profit for the season. Like any other season futures bets, the main issue is that your money is tied up a long time, so the concept of opportunity cost comes into play, but still, overall, AccuScore’s futures turned a profit. So, we’re not complaining.
AccuScore also identified three value picks in August for bigger money wagers:
1. Tennessee over 5.5 wins
2. Washington over 7.5 wins
3. Indianapolis under 9.5 wins
Tennessee got 9 wins and barely missed playoffs, Washington got 8.5 wins and also barely missed the playoffs, and Indianapolis got 8 wins, but was never real threat for 10+ wins as they managed win back-to-back games only once during the season.
As you see all of our value picks for season futures were correct and those who trusted supercomputer’s simulations a bit bigger bets, were celebrating when Week 17 wrapped up.
Game Picks: Recap
When reviewing game-by-game betting results during the NFL regular season after 265 games, results have been solid from a financial perspective:
- ATS: 3740 profit
- Totals: 490 profit
- Moneyline: 348 profit
- Side Value: 612 profit
These are the betting markets that we have been tracking during the season - Point Spreads and Totals results can be tracked back seven years - when the bet size has been 100 units. Even though playoffs are a different ballgame for many teams and bettors, we are confident that our predictions can be as accurate as they were a year ago .
2017 Special: Join Now using the code 2017 and get 35% off a premium All-Sports, All Access 1-year month membership! This is a limited time offer we're running to celebrate the success of the NFL season. Membership also gives you full access to EVERY sport AccuScore covers. The best analysis, predictions and trends anywhere... Become an AccuScore member today!
Here’s a look at the 2017 NFL Playoffs Bracket:
Moneyline, Side Value, Against the Spread & Totals... AccuScore's NFL Playoffs Picks
