Written by Rohit Ghosh

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AccuScore is 7-3 on NFC Conference games against the Spread this season and the computer has a Hot Trend three-star pick ATS for tonight’s Lions vs Bears game. See it on the NFL Expert Picks page.

NFC North: Detroit and Chicago on Monday Night

This week’s Monday Night Football features the Chicago Bears (4-1), who are coming off their bye, and their division rival Detroit Lions (2-3), who enter the week after getting a much needed win against Philadelphia. The NFC North (at least so far) has not been as predictable as some had expected with both the Lions and Green Bay Packers looking up at Minnesota in the standings. Chicago has taken the last seven of eight in the series with Detroit, and will look to keep the trend going this week.

While the Lions cannot afford to keep adding losses to their record if they want to make the playoffs, the Bears need to use their early season momentum to gain more separation in the division. AccuScore simulations project Chicago to win nearly 70 percent of the time, while covering the spread (CHI -6) close to 54 percent of the time. On average, the projected score is 28-20. In my opinion, the most telling projection is the 45.7 percent of time that Chicago gets a big win (10 points or more); Chicago gets a close win (4 points or less) only 11 percent of the time.

The Lions enter the game allowing 27.4 points per game this season (24th in the league), and unfortunately for Detroit fans the Bears are second in the league in points scored with 29.8 per game. Over the last three games that average has been 32.7 points for Chicago. Saying Detroit's defense has to step up is the understatement of the week. Understandably, the Bears will likely spend much of the game handing the ball to running back Matt Forte. He has been an absolute beast against the Lions the last four times these teams have played having gained at least 100 total yards or scored in each of those games.

The Lions won't just use Forte to run the ball, but also most likely as an option in the pass game as well. The Lions allow just 96.4 yards on the ground per game, which is even more impressive when you look at the backs they've already gone against this season among them Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and Steven Jackson. Detroit's run defense has to play well and force the onus onto quarterback Jay Cutler. Detroit has allowed just one rushing touchdown this season. AccuScore projects 76.4 rushing yards and 31.2 receiving yards for Forte.

Cutler (1,209 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT and completed 57.7 completion rate this season) will need to stay patient early on as the ground game develops. Once the field opens up, he'll be looking for his two favorite targets in Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jefferey. Detroit corner Chris Houston will most likely match up with Marshall who is projected by AccuScore for 97.6 receiving yards. In seven career games against Detroit, Cutler has completed 66.7 percent of his passes, 1,415 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception (105.0 QB Rating). Overall, this game really isn't about the Chicago offense. The Bears don not need to anything special to get a win, just keep up the balanced attack we've seen so far this season.

The fun part of the game will be when the Chicago defense faces the Detroit offense. Chicago's D is third best in the league in yards per game (291.2), tied for first in touchdowns allowed this season (5), and their 13 interceptions for 288 return yards also both rank first in the league. Detroit’s offense is ranked second in both yards gained per game (419.6 yards) and passing yards per game (319.8 yards). Chicago only allows 65.8 yards rushing to its opponents (first in the league), and given that Detroit only runs for 99.8 yards/game anyway, the fate of this game is probably in the hands of quarterback Matthew Stafford.

This season, Stafford has passed for 1,493 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions. Receiver Calvin Johnson (35 receptions, 558 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Brandon Pettigrew (26 receptions, 261 yards, 1 TD) will continue to the be the focus of the Detroit offense. Although the play of Chicago's secondary has been solid thus far, that unit was receiving the most criticism coming into the season. Some analysts have suggested they are "overachieving", and could regress at any point. They did a good enough job of defending against Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, but the Stafford-Johnson duo is unlike anything the team has faced yet. AccuScore projects Johnson to go for 88 yards. Look for corner Charles Tillman to cover Johnson who has done well in past match-ups. Tillman is 6'2’’ and likes to get physical with the 6'5’’ Johnson, making this match-up one to keep an eye out for as the game progresses.

Cutler currently leads the NFL in fourth quarter QB rating (118.4); Matthew Stafford is ranked fourth in the NFL in fourth quarter QB rating (112.5). AccuScore simulations project Stafford to pass for 258 yards with a 79.0 QB rating, and Cutler to pass for 253 yards with a 93.0 QB rating.

While the Lions need this game much more, it is tough to imagine the Bears losing this week. Under Coach Lovie Smith the Bears are 8-2 on Monday Night. Also, the Bears have won five of their last six after their bye week. I'm picking the Bears, 27-20.