Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Peyton Manning’s Return to Monday Night

The Denver Broncos trot over to the Georgia Dome on Monday night to face the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams started the season with wins last week as Denver defeated Pittsburgh 31-19 and Atlanta took down Kansas City 40-24. As I said in my write-up last week, Monday Night Football is the prime time for NFL teams. It’s a chance to show off to the entire league what you’re made of, but historically the Falcons haven’t been very successful. They are 9-24 on Monday Night, second worst in league history (Houston has the lowest winning percentage but has only played on Monday four times). With Denver quarterback Peyton Manning owning an 11-3 record on Monday Night, the Falcons will need some luck if they want to come out on top.

Fun Fact: The last time these two teams met (November 16, 2008), Denver won 24-20.

All the attention was on Peyton last week, and it is much of the same in Week 2. His 253 passing yards and 129.2 rating against Pittsburgh were dominant numbers especially looking at the limited amount of offensive possession the Broncos had. Fortunately for Denver fans and fantasy owners it looks like his neck injuries and surgeries might be things of the past. In Week 1 he had three different drives of 80+ yards. Manning moved the ball efficiently completing 73.1 percent of his passes. His chemistry with receiver Demaryius Thomas was on-point as well connecting for a deep touchdown. Thomas finished with 5 catches, 110 yards, and a score.

Make sure to check out AccuScore's picks against the spread, over/under and on the moneyline on the NFL Expert Picks page

Since Atlanta gave up 241 passing yards in Week 1, I expect Broncos receiver Eric Decker to improve upon his Week 1 performance. He caught 5 passes for 54 yards, and will be targeted just as often as he was last week (7 times).

My preseason concerns for Manning are still around unfortunately. I don’t know how he will deal with a strong pass rush and getting beat up consistently. Denver puts a lot of burden on Manning’s shoulders, and I’m not so sure he’ll be able to sustain this level of excellence all year. Still, that is an issue to tackle down the road and it won’t be something to discuss further for this week’s game. In four career games against Atlanta Manning has thrown for 1,046 yards with 13 touchdowns with just four interceptions (118.5 passer rating).

Atlanta allowed 152 yards rushing last week so look for running backs Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno to rack up more yards than they did against Pittsburgh. There’s no doubt that a matchup with Atlanta is a much more favorable situation for backs.

Quarterback Matt Ryan will lead the Falcons’ aerial attack as he looks to match or even improve upon his Week 1 performance against Kansas City. Against the Chiefs, Ryan completed 74 percent of his passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns. I was not impressed with the pass rush he faced, and fortunately for Atlanta, he was sacked only once. This week will be much tougher as he faces a solid Denver front seven. Just as AccuScore projects a good performance by Manning (296 yards, 2+ TDs), we see similar data for Ryan (287 yards, 2 TDs). How Ryan handles the previously mentioned Denver front seven will tell us everything we need to know about the final score.

By the way, in this type of offense, we can start expecting 300-yard games from Ryan more consistently … right?

A big reason the Steelers lost last week was because they didn’t establish a run game early against the Broncos. For Atlanta in Week 1, Michael Turner had 11 carries for 32 yards and Jacquizz Rodgers had seven carries for 22 yards and two catches for 13. Overall Rodgers’ numbers were nothing special, but his 77-yard kickoff return in the first quarter was pretty nice. Having said that, let’s remember that the Falcons want to pass. In last week’s game they called about twice as many passing plays as running plays in the first half while the game was still competitive. Receiver Julio Jones had a tremendous game as he finished with 108 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Denver allowed 209 passing yards last week so look for Matty Ice to target Jones plenty of times on Monday. Assuming Atlanta gets the Matt Ryan from last week, things should be okay; the issue is that the Denver defense and offense is better than what Atlanta saw last week.

Injury Reminder: The loss of Atlanta cornerback Brent Grimes (Achilles) hurts even more this early in the season. Peyton Manning will be sure to take advantage of this weak point in the defense.

I’m excited to see receiver Roddy White go up against cornerback Champ Bailey. Denver will have their hands full with White, Jones, and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Bailey can contain practically anyone in the league, but with White coming off a week where he caught six passes, look out. He will get plenty of space too with the defense most likely focusing in on Jones.



AccuScore simulations project a close win for Atlanta with the Falcons winning 52.7 percent of the time, and the average score being 28-27. The line has settled at three (ATL -3) with the total at 51. The winner will be decided by which offense can outlast the other, and the expectation of a competitive game should prove to be true. History doesn’t often lie, and numbers never lie. Manning has a good track record on MNF, and Atlanta doesn’t: Broncos win 30-24.