Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Dallas vs Chicago on Monday Night!

Last week I told you that the Seahawks would keep it close for the majority of the game, and the Packers would pull away in the fourth quarter. We all know that isn’t how the game turned out so let’s blame my incorrect prediction on the replacement refs. They won’t mind being blamed for just one more thing.

This week’s Monday Night action comes to us from Dallas as the Bears are in town to face the Cowboys. Both teams are coming off impressive defensive performances, and we can expect much of the same this week. Dallas ranks second in passing defense, and the Bears rank sixth in both passing and rushing defense. This game could have playoff implications down the road especially with NFC tiebreakers. The Cowboys lately have had hiccups on offense against aggressive defenses like that of Seattle, and it won’t get any easier against Chicago.

AccuScore is the premier forecasting sports simulation engine, and it is making picks for every NFL game, including this one. See all of tonight’s AccuScore picks on the NFL Expert Picks page


The Cutler and Marshall combo has combined for 16 completions, 214 yards, and 1 TD in 3 games this season

This match-up comes down to two things: quarterback play and which elite defense has the last word. Although we’re only in Week 4, Jay Cutler has already been up and down with his play. The worst of his play came against the Packers when he threw four interceptions, and was sacked seven times. Even Chicago’s 23-6 win last week over the Rams was a result of weaker competition, and support from a strong defense. That D had six sacks last week, and currently leads the league in that category with 14. Cutler made enough short completions to get the first downs, but the performance was again less than noteworthy as he finished just 17 for 31. Cutler did play well though the last time these teams met (21-29, 3 TDs, 277 yards, 27-20 win) and will need to have a repeat performance if Chicago wants to get this road win.

The Dallas defense might rank second in pass defense, but their success against the run is much worse (19th). Chicago writers have said this week that there is a good shot that Forte suits up despite him being listed as questionable. If he is good to go, the Cowboys’ defense might have a frustrating night ahead of them. The total is set at 41.5, surprisingly high with two strong defenses and two turnover-prone offenses. AccuScore simulations still project the over almost 58 percent of the time.


Jason Witten is less than 100% and has only caught 8 balls for 76yards with 0 TDs this season

I’m looking forward to DeMarcus Ware getting a chance to make an impact on this game. Pass protection is decidedly not a strength for Chicago, and Rob Ryan’s will let Ware do his thing. Ware is just too fast and good at what he does to not get a chance to not show out in game like this. If Forte isn’t there and Cutler has another night like the one versus Green Bay, the Bears might head into a bye week at 2-2 instead of a promising 3-1.

The same protection issue is just as important on the other side. The Dallas offensive line needs to arrive at the stadium ready to go, and protect Romo as if their lives depended on it. The Chicago d-line will be attacking Romo, and he will need the help of a running game to lessen some of the pressure he will face all game. After DeMarco Murray had 131 yards in the opener against the New York Giants, he only totaled 82 yards in his next two games. AccuScore projects 19 carries, and 84 yards for Murray. AccuScore’s simulations project 250 passing yards for Romo with a QB rating of 98.

Individual match-up to watch: CB Brandon Carr vs. WR Brandon Marshall

How well Carr defends Marshall will be a big factor as to who wins tonight. Marshall has had a touchdown the last couple of times he has played Dallas.

Cutler has a tendency of throwing the ball off his back foot when he is about to be hit. I think the line will protect him much better this game and wild throws like that won’t happen more than once. We saw against Green Bay how out of hand QB protection can get and Cutler spent much of the game on his back. In a grind-it-out game like this should be, it comes down to which line protects their quarterback better. Saying the Chicago D is “good” would be an understatement, and the stats support its reputation. I just have a feeling that Chicago will be the better team, getting the win behind a defense that has a tendency to cause turnovers.

Most of the experts seem to agree with the guys over in Vegas as the Cowboys (-3.5) are the popular pick to win this game. AccuScore’s simulations project Dallas coming out on top almost 61 percent of the time with an average score of about 25-21. I however, have a different prediction. Assuming Matt Forte makes a return, I think he is enough to change the outcome of the game. Bears win 17-13.