Written by Rohit Ghosh

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AccuScore’s has two four-star picks for tonight’s Chargers vs Broncos game, see them on the NFL Expert Picks page. 4-star is the top rating the AccuScore computer gives a pick, so don't miss out!

San Diego vs Denver: Peyton vs Rivers

This week’s MNF action features a meeting of two AFC West rivals; the Denver Broncos visit the San Diego Chargers in a battle for first place in the division. AccuScore simulations project a San Diego win 55 percent of the time. The two teams are evenly matched, and neither side should dominate the other. Who wins this game will likely come down to how well the Charger defense limits big plays by Peyton manning and the Bronco offense.

Denver (2-3) is coming off a loss to New England, 31-21, when a fourth quarter comeback fell short. The Broncos currently rank fifth in passing yard (287.2 yards), and 17th in rushing yards per game (101.2 yards). We have seen that quarterback Peyton Manning can still throw at a high level, but the fear now is that the team chemistry won’t be established in time to make a run at the playoffs. Manning has completed 66 percent of his passes this season, throwing for 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions. All three of the interceptions actually came in one game when Manning had a rough start against the Falcons. San Diego ranks in the top five in the league stopping the run, which should put some extra pressure on Manning. His go-to guys this season have been Demaryius Thomas (30 catches, 5 TDs, 505 yards) and Eric Decker (28 catches, 2 TDs, 343 yards). The Chargers have the 20th ranked pass defense.

Manning has a history of stepping up in key situations, and this seems to be one of those. He is taking a 2-3 team on the road at a division rival with the potential to get back to .500. He will face the 20th-rank pass defense, and should have no trouble throwing for multiple scores and getting 250-300 yards. AccuScore projects 281 yards, 2 touchdowns and a QB rating of 104.1.

On the other side, the match-up for San Diego’s Philip Rivers is a bit more unfavorable. Mike Klis of the Denver Post says the Chargers may want to copy what the New England Patriots against the Denver defense just last week: “When the Broncos defeated Pittsburgh in the season opener, they ran 55 plays. The Patriots ran 89 plays in their 31-21 victory against the Broncos last Sunday. Add in the eight penalties called when the Patriots had the ball, and Brady took 97 snaps -- almost double the 53 plays Oakland got off the previous week against Denver.”

In the past, Rivers has had tremendous success against the Broncos, averaging 235.5 yards per game with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 13 games. His 102.7 QB rating against the Broncos is the best of any team that he has faced at least five times. Last week against the Saints, Rivers went 27-42 for 354 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. So far this year, he has passed for 1,251 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions with a 68 percent completion rate. Malcolm Floyd leads the San Diego receivers with 20 catches, 358 yards, and a score. Tight end Antonio Gates, who has historically had big games against Denver, has 13 catches for 112 yards this season. The primary deep threat is Robert Meachem who has 9 catches, 159 yards and two touchdowns. The Bronco d-line (especially ends Elvis Dumervil and Derek Wolfe) has to attack Rivers early because he will absolutely shred the defense if given enough time in the pocket.

While San Diego’s defense makes its plays primarily by stopping the run, Denver’s defense has the potential to be a nuisance for Rivers and the passing game. The Broncos are 11th in the league in pass defense, but 21st in rush defense. Running back Ryan Matthews, who missed the first few weeks of the season, has 36 carries for 185 yards (5.1 yards per attempt). Jackie Battle has 173 yards on 36 attempts (4.8 yards per attempt). The Chargers have the 16th ranked rushing offense in the league, and they will need to get the running attack going early to give Rivers options later in the game. We know Rivers can throw the ball and throw it well, but a lack of a ground game early will make it practically impossible to get receivers open down the field.

If there is only one thing the Denver defense has to focus on, it is their third-down performance. The Broncos rank 28th in third-down defense, allowing their opponents to convert 46.7 percent of the time.

AccuScore simulations project an average score of 27-25 in favor of San Diego, with 60 percent of the simulations going over the total of 47.5. While the data points to a Charger victory, the quality of opponents Denver has played sticks out to me (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, and New England). The Broncos have had strong second halves, and managed to keep it close against some of the league’s best teams. Denver does not want San Diego to get a two game lead in the division; I’m predicting a 24-20 Denver win.