Written by Rohit Ghosh

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San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears…BOOM!

This week’s Monday night match-up, fittingly termed the ‘Concussion Bowl’, has two of the most revered franchises in the league, the 49ers and Bears, facing off in what will be a defensive battle. Chicago will play this week without quarterback Jay Cutler (concussion), only putting added pressure on their defense to keep this game close. San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith returned to practice on Thursday, and is expected to play Monday night. With Cutler out, the Niners have a slight advantage as these two teams are so evenly matched. Backfield production will be the deciding factor as the running backs for both sides are likely to be featured.

AccuScore simulations project a San Francisco win approximately 58 percent of the time with an average score of 20-17. The Niners cover the spread (-7) in just 35.8 percent of the simulations. Taking the points and Chicago in this one is probably the best bet in this situation.

With Cutler unable to play, quarterback Jason Campbell will get the start for Chicago. Campbell’s last start was nothing to boast about as he connected on 6 of 9 passes for 52 yards with the Raiders against Cleveland before leaving the game with a broken collarbone. He finished with a passer rating of 84.2 last season. In his one half of play against the Houston Texans this year, he did enough to get by but didn’t perform spectacularly. He completed 11 of 19 passes for just 94 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions and a passer rating of 70.9. This week won’t get any easier because the 49ers defense ranks fifth in the NFL in opponents pass yards per game. AccuScore simulations project 229 yards and a passer rating of 77.6 for Campbell. Unfortunately for him, the simulations show that his chances of throwing a touchdown are just slightly better than throwing an interception.

The real battle this game will come on the ground. The Niners have to stop running backs Matt Forte and Michael Bush while the Bears have to deal with running back Frank Gore. The Bears have given up 100-yard rushers in back-to-back weeks, the first time that has happened since the 2009 season. The Niners, also known for their ability to stop the run, allowed Stephen Jackson to rush for 106 yards last week.

According to ESPN.com, Campbell has an average throw distance of only 6.6 yards downfield over the last five seasons. As a result, expect Forte to get plenty of carries (and some catches) against the Niners. Forte is averaging 5.2 yards per touch this season, the sixth best mark in the NFL. Bush, his backup, has not done much since the first few weeks of the season and even fumbled one of his three carries last week. Even though Forte is a force to be reckoned with, running the ball won’t be easy as San Francisco ranks seventh in the league in run defense allowing fewer than 96 yards per game. AccuScore simulations project 50 yards on 16 carries for Forte, and 20 yards on eight carries for Bush.

Chicago receiver Brandon Marshall got his fifth 100-yard receiving performance of the season last week. The 49ers rank fifth in the league in pass defense giving up under 197 yards per game. In the limited time Marshall and Campbell were on the field together last week, Marshall caught six passes for 86 yards and seems to already have some sort of chemistry with the backup QB. Simulations project 91 yards on 6 receptions for Marshall.

The Bears are even better than their opponents this week at stopping the run, allowing just 92 yards per game. While the Niners have the “QB advantage” this week with Cutler out, their best option is to start with a ground attack. AccuScore simulations project 163 yards, 1 touchdown, and a passer rating of 84.3 for Smith. The simulations also suggest there is a good chance Smith throws an interception.

Let Gore carry it early, and carry it often. Gore is averaging 5.4 yards a carry, fourth best among running backs, and even more importantly, adding 1.9 yards after contact per rush. A back like Gore can tire out a defense as the game progresses and his running gaps will consequently start to get bigger. AccuScore simulations project 71 yards on 17 carries for Gore.

Both teams have plenty of talent on the field, but the collective focus on defense will keep this a low-scoring affair. The simulations set the same total as the betting line (37 points), but I wouldn’t be surprised if the scoreboard saw a lack of action this week. Since 1989, the home team has won the last ten meetings between these two sides. I’m taking the Niners (mostly because Cutler is out), 17-10.