Written by Colin Kennedy

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Rookie QBs: Dolphins vs Colts

This Sunday, two surprise AFC teams will meet in Miami that could ultimately determine which rookie quarterback will make the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins – both thought to be rebuilding – enter Sunday with matching 4-3 records and are playing for a potential playoff wild card. While many analysts projected Colts quarterback Andrew Luck to eventually become one of the league’s elite, no one believed Luck or his counterpart in Miami Ryan Tannehill to bring instant success to their respective franchises.

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Unfortunately for Dolphins fans, there is about a 50-50 chance that Tannehill will miss this game due to a bruised knee which forced him out of last Sunday’s road win against the Jets. However, he is expected to start and play unless he is severely hampered by a lack of mobility. Dolphins coach Joe Philbin would then turn to Matt Moore, who was 11 for 19 and recorded a 97 quarterback rating in his relief effort. Both Miami and Indy are fairly young squads who are excelling amidst their rebuilding. I expect a close game, and AccuScore’s simulations have Miami winning 57 percent of the time with an average score of 21-18.

Like every NFL game, this will game will come down to whomever turns the ball over less as each team sports a large probable win percentage if they commit fewer turnovers. Miami has a clear advantage in simulations as they committed fewer turnovers in 62 percent of the games, winning 74 percent of those match-ups. When the Colts commit fewer turnovers than the Dolphins, they showed a 70 percent chance of winning.

Luck had early struggles, failing to find the open man and often forcing throws that resulted in turnovers. His maturity has already shown as he led the Colts to two 80 yard drives which resulted in a 19-13 overtime victory on the road against Tennessee Titans. In his team’s four victories, he has a 87 quarterback rating and a 5:2 touchdown to interception ratio. His play clearly dictates how this team performs as he has an underwhelming 60 quarterback rating and a 1:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his team’s three losses. While he is just one game away from breaking Peyton Manning’s rookie record of four 300-yard passing games in a season, AccuScore projects a modest 240 passing yards and both a touchdown and interception. Luck comes into Sunday’s game 10th in the league in passing yards and ranks as the 11th best fantasy quarterback.

Luck has done a fantastic job spreading the ball around to his limited supporting cast as he’s had little help from the running game through seven games. The Colts are currently the 17th best rushing team at 107.1 yards per game. Interim coach Bruce Arians has been forced to play rookie running back Vic Ballard in heavy doses due to early season injuries to starter Donald Brown. Ballard, a 5th round draft pick, has struggled to the tune of just 3.4 yards per carry and no rushing touchdowns. When healthy, Brown has proven to be an upgrade averaging 4.3 yards per carry, but has only averaged a little over 60 yards a game. AccuScore projects about 70 yards combined for the two running backs, and less than a score so fantasy owners should stay away. However, if Brown has a great game and rushes for at least 1 TD (don’t hold your breath, he only did so in 19 percent of simulations), it would help his team win 65 percent of the time.

The Colts have shined in the passing game particularly veteran receiver Reggie Wayne. He is among the league leaders in receiving yards (757, 1st), receptions (54, 3rd), and receiving yards per game (108.1, 1st). While AccuScore forecasts Wayne to perform below his season numbers in this game, I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds his expected 75 receiving yards.

The Dolphins have been without offseason acquisition cornerback Richard Marshall, who had a breakout campaign in 2011. Marshall recorded 3 interceptions and 69 solo tackles last year, but sustained a back injury in late September and has been sidelined since. It is unknown if he’ll play, and even if he does, the secondary still isn’t among the elite in the NFL or even the conference. However, they do have three linebackers who play every defensive down, quite the rarity among modern defenses. Defensive end Cameron Wake has been an absolute force this season as he’s averaged more than a sack a game (7.5 on the season), and has a favorable match-up against a below average LT in Anthony Castonzo. The Miami defense has 22 sacks on the season; their pass rush ranks among the tops in the league. AccuScore projects Miami to get more than two sacks and create almost two turnovers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they surpass these figures as the Colts feature one of the worst and inexperienced offensive lines in the NFL.

Miami’s offense is dependent on the status of Tannehill. While his stats show he has a long development ahead of him (4 TDs, 6 INT, under 60% completions), Tannehill has shown a knack for big play ability in play action passes. Tannehill has been helped by the emergence of a strong running game, as Reggie Bush (when healthy) has shown that last season’s career year was no fluke. Bush has contributed nearly 100 total yards a game in 2012, with 4.4 yards per carry and 3 TDs. Back-up RB Daniel Thomas had 40 yards rushing against the Jets adding a touchdown on the ground. While Bush averaged 75 yards rushing and half a touchdown in AccuScore simulations, the Colts have a fairly mediocre run defense; he could meet projections by halftime if the Dolphins take pressure off of Tannehill. Indianapolis’ defense allows over 137 yards rushing a game. That number is artificially low as they have already played poor rushing offenses like the Packers, Jets, and Browns.

Going into the 2012 season, many believed that Tannehill would struggle due to limited playmakers on the outside. However, both Brian Hartline and Davone Bess have surprised and could finish the year with 1,000 yard campaigns. While neither has found success in the end zone (just one score combined), tight end Anthony Fasano already has three touchdowns. Indianapolis will be without their number one cornerback Vontae Davis (a former Dolphin) as he is out with a knee injury. While touchdowns may be scarce, both Hartline and Bess should reach 50 yards each.

The Colts defense must contain the Dolphins’ rush attack. If they limit Miami’s ability to run, the play action won’t be as dangerous and the strength of Indy’s defense can get after the quarterback on long third downs. Linebackers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis need to bring heat on Tannehill (or Moore). AccuScore projects just two sacks and around a turnover and a half for the Colts defense. That won’t be enough to win this close game. I predict Miami winning this match up 21-17.