Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Divisional Round: Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
The top-seeded Atlanta Falcons look to end the surprisingly successful season the Seattle Seahawks are having thus far on Sunday when the two teams face off in the Georgia Dome. Seattle is coming off an impressive 24-14 victory over the Washington Redskins, while Atlanta enters this week after a first-round bye. As analysts have been mentioning all week, this match-up is a dream come true for old-school football fans: good, solid fundamental play with a gritty attitude accompanying it. It probably won't be the most exciting of match-ups this weekend given the attention a game like San Francisco vs. Green Bay has received, but you are wrong if you don't think the game will be competitive and hard-fought. As the saying goes, this one is going to be won or lost at the line of scrimmage.
Who will move on to the NFC championship? AccuScore simulations for this game are the closest they have been for any game I have previewed. The Falcons are slight favorites with a 50.1 percent chance of winning the game. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 24.5 - 24.2. As you can see, betting on this game isn't the easiest thing to do. If you're following AccuScore data, the best bet to make on this game is taking the over on the total. There is a 56 percent chance the total score is over 45.5 points.
As I stated earlier, all adjustments from both teams will happen at the line. On one end, the Falcons need to contain quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Marshawn Lynch, and the team's read-option play. To contain that, Atlanta needs to disrupt plays early and not let anything develop.
Last week against Washington, Wilson threw for 187 yards (16/29) with 1 touchdown, no interceptions and a passer rating of 92.9. Lynch had 20 carries for 132 yards and 1 touchdown. He averaged 6.6 ypc and his longest run was for 27 yards. Wilson is projected to throw for 229 yards (98.1 passer rating), and at least 1 TD. Lynch is projected to carry the football 19 times for 80 yards.
Seattle needs to establish the ground game early in order to limit the time of possession for Atlanta. Once on the field, quarterback Matt Ryan has plenty of options in receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, and tight end Tony Gonzalez. The Seattle defense has to make it a priority to get to Ryan as quickly as possible; the more time he has to throw, the more accurate he obviously is. More importantly though, the extra time gives the receivers the time to create separation from defenders and get open.
The Seattle defense has a fairly high chance of getting two sacks, and a favorable chance to force both an interception and a fumble. Ryan is projected to throw for 296 yards (2 touchdowns) with a passer rating of 97.1. Wilson and Ryan have the same chance of thrown an interception.
The match-up to watch will be the Falcons wideouts versus the Seattle secondary. White and Jones, arguably the best receiving duo in the league, combined for 171 catches with 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Jones is projected to catch it 5 times for 83 yards. White is projected to get nearly the same yardage but on 6 catches. Jones has a higher chance of finding the end zone however.
Those two will match-up with Seattle cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. They’ll make the game extremely physical, and in my opinion, force Ryan to rely on Gonzalez. Gonzalez is projected to receive it five to six times for approximately 61 yards. This is no knock on Gonzalez, but if Atlanta can’t get anything deep with White or Jones, they’re in big trouble. Keep an eye out for safety Earl Thomas too; if Sherman and Browner do their jobs, Thomas can wreak havoc by having the freedom to roam.
As it is predicted to be a closely-contested game, I'm a bit worried about Seattle's kicker. During the week, they signed veteran kicker Ryan Longwell after placing Steven Hauschka on injured reserve. In a game that might be decided by one play, Seattle has a big disadvantage in having to bring someone new in, as opposed to Atlanta's stud of a kicker, Matt Bryant.
This is a tough one to pick. A cursory glance at all the stats would lead me to take the Falcons by 3 or 7, but there's a factor of momentum in the playoffs that simple numbers can't mirror. Seattle is white hot right now, and I think they squeeze out a close one. Will Matty Ice melt again in January? AccuScore data projects the Atlanta victory, but I'll be bold and pick Seattle by 3.
